The bank said AML is a high-risk, high reward proposition, not least after extreme share price volatility over the last week. It noted the shares are up 33% versus before the third-quarter warning and 57% above the low on 2 November, which was the day of the warning, in the context of a relatively flat Stoxx 600 automobiles and parts index.
"But we see a plausible path to a sustainable business model," Barclays (LON:BARC) said.
"Product launches (including 2023/24 Sports/GT line-up renewal) should drive higher volume, higher revenue per unit and support AML's more than 40% gross margin target for new models - so that despite AML's significant execution risks, our price target implies circa 15x 2025e price-to-earnings."
Barclays said other risks include lower-than-expected volumes - especially for the DBX - and pricing and continued and new supply constraints.
At 0910 GMT, the shares were up 3% at 147.35p.
