LONDON - Aviation analytics firm Cirium released its 2023 Fleet Forecast today, predicting significant growth in the aircraft industry with $3.2 trillion worth of new passenger aircraft deliveries expected over the next two decades. According to the report, annual deliveries are set to exceed $100 billion in 2024.
The forecast indicates a 4.1% annual increase in freight capacity compared to 2022, with 3,590 freighter aircraft projected for delivery by 2042, including 1,060 new builds and 2,530 conversions from passenger planes.
Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:BA) are anticipated to maintain their dominance in the commercial aircraft market, delivering an estimated 89% of all aircraft through to 2042. The forecast raises questions about future demand for different aircraft models and the potential introduction of new programs by these manufacturers, as well as the market share of emerging Chinese programs.
Asia is expected to lead in passenger capacity growth, with China predicted to grow over 8%, securing a 19% share of global deliveries, the largest for a single country in the region. North American airlines are expected to account for 20% of deliveries, followed by Europe with 18%. The Middle East is projected to take 7% of deliveries, increasing to 11% in value due to a preference for higher-value twin-aisle aircraft.
Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, commented on the industry's recovery and growth, noting that the level of order activity in 2023 suggests a new growth cycle for the airline industry.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast adopts a scenario-based approach, scrutinizing the latest information with expert commentary and analysis. This year's forecast is based on an updated version of Ascend's 2022 Recovery Scenario 7.
Cirium, a part of RELX, provides data and analytics to various sectors within the aviation industry, aiding in decision-making processes that enhance operations and customer experiences.
This forecast is based on a press release statement from Cirium.
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