A fresh national survey conducted by Emerson (NYSE:EMR) College Polling revealed that Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely U.S. voters, with 49% supporting Harris and 47% backing Trump.
The survey also highlighted that 3% of voters remain undecided, and 1% plan to cast their vote for another candidate.
The current standings in the presidential race echo the close contest seen in the 2020 election, when President Biden held a similar two-point advantage over Trump in late August.
“The 2024 presidential race currently mirrors 2020, with the Democratic lead narrowing from four points to two in national polls,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“In 2020, Biden re-established his four-point lead in late September ahead of the first debate; now, we’ll see what impact the debate has on the trajectory of this race.”
The survey also shed light on the voting preferences of suburban voters, who are nearly evenly divided, with 48% favoring Harris and 47% supporting Trump. A gender divide is evident within this group, as suburban men lean towards Trump by a 17-point margin, while suburban women show an 18-point preference for Harris.
In the broader political landscape, the generic congressional ballot indicates that 48% of voters support the Democratic candidate, compared to 44% who support the Republican candidate.
The favorability ratings for both Harris and Trump are closely matched, with 51% viewing Harris favorably against 49% unfavorably, and Trump holding a 47% favorability score with 53% viewing him unfavorably.
President Biden's job approval rating stands at 41%, with 53% disapproving. His approval has seen a slight increase from 39% since mid-August.
In a poll conducted last week, when voters were asked whose character and persona they would prefer children to emulate, 54% chose Harris over Trump.
The economy remains the top concern for voters, with 43% citing it as the most important issue, followed by immigration at 15%, and threats to democracy at 14%.
Voters who prioritize the economy and immigration tend to support Trump, while those concerned with threats to democracy, housing, and abortion access lean towards Harris.