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Forex - Pound Buoyed by Hopes of Brexit Breakthrough

Published 24/11/2017, 11:27
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Investing.com - The pound was fairly buoyant on Friday morning ahead of Prime Minister Theresa May’s meeting with European Council President Donald Tusk. Upon arrival in Brussels, May described the negotiations as ‘positive’.

Cable was comfortably above $1.33. At 11:20 GMT, GBP/USD was 1.3323, up 0.11% on the previous session close. The currency pair is currently on track to close the week at its highest level since September.

Earlier on Friday, cable was trading at 1.3321 immediately following the release of mortgage approval data from the British Bankers’ Association, despite the data showing the number of mortgages approved by UK banks was at a 13-month low in October.

The BBA report showed that mortgage approvals fell to 40.5K in October, compared with 41.6K in September. The October figure was lower than the forecast rate of 40.9K.

The report also highlighted a surge in refinancing, as homeowners rushed to refinance mortgages ahead of the Bank of England rate rise at the beginning of November.

Senior Economist Mohammad Jamei noted that good credit for first time buyers boosted borrowing rates: "Borrowing was also boosted by stronger first-time buyer activity as this segment reaped the benefits from good credit availability, lower rates and government housing schemes."

The pound rebounded despite a YouGov poll that indicated consumer confidence was at its lowest level since immediately after the Brexit referendum in June last year. The low rating is in contrast with retail sales numbers from the Confederation of British Industry on Thursday, which showed a jump in sales for November.

May is set to discuss the UK’s plan to leave the European Union with Tusk of Friday afternoon, with the intention of breaking the stalemate. It is expected that May will double her offer of the divorce bill from £20bn to £40bn in the hope that trade talks will begin at the December summit.

The divorce bill is one of three areas that the UK and the other 27 EU member states must agree on before talks can move onto the next round. The rights of European citizens in the UK and the Irish border are the other two issues that need to be resolved.

A scandal in the Republic of Ireland is the latest bout of political uncertainty to hit the European Union in recent months. The Irish deputy-Prime Minister Frances Fitzgerald received a vote of no confidence from the party that props up the minority government. If the party goes ahead with their threat to pull down the administration, then a snap election could coincide with the next round of Brexit talks in December.

Despite political turmoil in Germany, the euro enjoyed a boost on Friday morning following an uptick in the German Ifo business climate index.

EUR/GBP was almost unchanged at 0.8904, while EUR/USD sat comfortably above $1.18, at 1.1857.

As a result of quiet trade on Friday, following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, the US dollar was lower against most major currencies. The minutes from the FOMC policy meeting continued to weigh on the greenback.

Investors will be looking to the release of flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the U.S. later on Friday afternoon.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little unchanged at 93.06, up from mid-October lows early on Friday.

Sterling rallied against the commodity currencies. GBP/AUD was up 0.28% to 1.7502, while GBP/NZD jumped 0.38% to 1.9390.

GBP/CAD was trading at 1.6965, up 0.27%.

The pound moved up against the safe haven currencies. GBP/JPY recovered some of the week’s losses to sit at 148.51, up 0.34%. GBP/CHF was almost unchanged at 1.3072.

Investors will be watching to see if progress has been made by Tusk and May regarding Brexit.

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