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German economic advisers say ECB policy carries risks

Published 12/11/2014, 11:02
Updated 12/11/2014, 11:10
© Reuters General view of the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt

BERLIN (Reuters) - The German government's panel of independent economic advisers criticised the European Central Bank's asset-buying programme on Wednesday and urged it to avoid a major increase in its balance sheet until clearer signs of deflation emerged.

In its annual report, the panel, traditionally known as the "wisemen", although it now includes one woman, also cut its forecast for 2014 German growth to 1.2 percent from a previous 1.9 percent due to crises abroad and weakness in Europe.

It forecast growth of 1.0 percent for next year.

The ECB's cut to the benchmark interest rate to combat falling inflation and its asset-buying programme carried dangers for the euro zone economy, the panel warned, joining other senior German figures who are sceptical about ECB policy.

"On the one hand the financial sector is led into taking greater risks because of low interest rates, and on the other hand, due to the bond buying, the ECB could encourage governments to ease off on reform and consolidation efforts."

The report added that the ECB should "avoid a massive expansion of its balance sheet, so long as deflation is neither in evidence in the euro zone, nor forecast".

The ECB is facing critical choices about whether to buy sovereign bonds to combat falling inflation and economic stagnation - a taboo in Germany.

After the ECB's policy meeting last Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank's balance sheet would "move towards the dimensions it had at the beginning of 2012" through a wave of unlimited four-year cheap loans to banks, purchases of covered bonds and asset-backed securities.

His statement effectively committed the bank to about 1 trillion euros worth of purchases.

The new programme has put the Italian's relationship with the Germans under intense strain, particularly over the possibility of future purchases of sovereign bonds.

The panel also repeated its recommendation that Germany should introduce more investment and innovation-friendly policies, and criticised that new measures such as a lower retirement age and minimum wage weighed on growth.

© Reuters. General view of the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt

Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected such criticism, instead blaming international crises for Germany's economic slowdown.

(Reporting by Alexandra Hudson and Michael Nienaber; Editing by Noah Barkin and Crispian Balmer)

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