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Forex - Weekly outlook: April 24 - April 28

Published 23/04/2017, 11:49
© Reuters.  Safe haven yen, swiss franc push higher against U.S. dollar
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Investing.com - The dollar slid against the yen and the Swiss franc late Friday as investors moved into safe haven assets ahead of the first round of voting in a tight French presidential election race.

USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 109.09 late Friday. USD/CHF fell 0.18% to 0.9966.

The euro edged higher against the dollar, with EUR/USD inching up 0.1% to 1.0727 in late trade.

Polls indicated that centrist Emmanuel Macron was clinging to a narrow lead ahead of the first round of voting in France's presidential election on Sunday, in a four-way race that is too close to call.

Investors are fearful over the prospect of a second round run-off between far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, who both want to put the country’s European Union membership to a vote.

Investors were also watching events in Washington. On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration will unveil a tax reform plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this year.

Sterling remained supported, with GBP/USD at 1.2825 late Friday despite data showing that UK retail sales posed their largest quarterly fall since the first three months of 2010 in the three months to March.

The data reinforced concerns that rising inflation is eroding consumer spending, the main driver of the UK economy.

The pound ended the week with gains of 2.3% after rallying earlier in the week when British Prime Minister Theresa May called for early elections.

Sentiment on sterling was boosted by expectations that May will win a substantial majority in the elections, securing her position ahead of talks with the European Union about the terms for Brexit.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 99.66 late Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 99.36 set on Wednesday.

In the week ahead, political developments in France are likely to set the tone for the euro ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and Friday’s euro zone inflation data.

Investors will also be focusing on preliminary estimates of first quarter growth from the UK and the U.S. on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 24

The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to speak.

Tuesday, April 25

Financial markets in Australia and New Zealand are to remain closed for the ANZAC Day holiday.

The UK is to report on public sector borrowing.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.

Wednesday, April 26

Australia is to produce data on consumer price inflation.

Canada is to publish figures on retail sales.

Thursday, April 27

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.

The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Friday, April 28

Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.

New Zealand is to report on business confidence.

The UK is to release a preliminary estimate for first quarter economic growth.

Germany is to release figures on retail sales.

The euro zone is to publish a preliminary inflation estimate.

Canada is to release data on monthly economic growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched preliminary figures on first quarter growth, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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