🎈 Up Big Today: Find today's biggest gainers with our free screenerTry Stock Screener

Euro nears two-year high as ECB flags autumn tightening talk

Published 20/07/2017, 17:25
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: 10 Euro banknotes are pictured under ultraviolet light at the headquarters of Bundesbank in Frankfurt
EUR/GBP
-
STOXXE
-

By Patrick Graham and John Geddie

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro jetted to an almost two-year high on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said officials would discuss possible changes to its bond-buying scheme this autumn.

Though Draghi set no date for changes to the scheme and said rate-setters had been unanimous in their decision not to change their guidance on monetary policy, investors reckoned the discussions would lead to monetary tightening next year.

That drove an initial rise for the euro to around $1.1570 , a move analysts said was fuelled by the fact that Draghi did not dwell on the currency's strength.

"In all probability tapering will occur as we head into 2018 and we have seen no substantive challenge to that expectation in today's meeting. Hence the currency has received some support," Richard McGuire, a senior strategist at Rabobank, said.

He added that the euro was also rising probably due to the fact that Draghi noted the single currency’s appreciation had received attention but "provided no pushback to this strengthening despite having the perfect opportunity to do so".

The euro gained almost another cent against the dollar in the hour that followed the meeting - helped by a report of a widening inquiry into President Donald Trump's business affairs - taking it to its highest since August 2015 at $1.1659.

"The first leg was about Draghi but the second leg up in the euro has been U.S.-related, given that we've had reports of more probes into Trump," said Lisa Scott-Smith, co-head of portfolio management with currency fund Millennium Global in London.

Against sterling, the euro climbed 1.4 percent to an eight-month high of 89.76 pence (EURGBP=D3).

Germany's 10-year bond yield - the bloc's benchmark - climbed 2 basis points to a day's high of 0.56 percent after Draghi's comments but by 1530 GMT was flat at 0.54 percent. Euro zone stocks were a touch lower on the day (STOXXE)

"I think a positive outlook of the economy and expectations of stimulus withdrawal in the autumn, and perhaps confirmation of the fact that we will have more explicit tightening then, is driving the euro and bond yields higher," said Alexandra Russell-Oliver, an FX strategist at Caxton FX in London.

Markets still expect the ECB to raise rates next year, though they now bet that a hike could come later than initially anticipated.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: 10 Euro banknotes are pictured under ultraviolet light at the headquarters of Bundesbank in Frankfurt

Euro zone money markets price in roughly a 70 percent chance of a 10-basis-point hike in rates by next July, having fully priced in a move a week ago. A rise by October is fully priced in by markets .

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.