(Reuters) - UBS Global Research said on Monday it now expects the Bank of England to begin easing interest rates, with a 25-basis-point (bps) cut, in August compared to its prior expectation of a cut in May.
The BoE kept its rate unchanged at 5.25% in its last meeting and said it would "keep under review for how long bank rate should be maintained at its current level", while it awaits more evidence inflation would return permanently to the 2% target.
Official data showed last month that British inflation unexpectedly held steady at 4.0% in January, defying forecasts of a rise, while wages grew at the weakest pace in over a year in the last three months of 2023.
"The MPC's (Monetary Policy Committee) emphasis on more evidence that inflation does not become entrenched suggests that May might be too early for the first cut," UBS economists wrote in a note.
The brokerage continues to expect the labor market and inflation to ease further.
"It seems unlikely to us that the BoE (which is facing higher inflation) would start cutting rates first," UBS said.
While the June meeting would be the next available option, UBS said the MPC was likely to prefer waiting until August when it would be updating its projection.
A Reuters poll of economists showed in February that the British central bank would start cutting interest rates in the third quarter, with a slim majority expecting the first reduction in August.
In total, UBS expects 75 bps of cuts this year — 25 bps each in August, November and December — versus its prior forecast of 100 bps, bringing the policy rate to 4.50% by the year-end.