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Factbox-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets

Published 18/04/2024, 17:38
© Reuters. The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger
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(Reuters) -Global growth will likely slow this year and major central banks across the globe have indicated interest rate cuts this year.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.8% 5.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6.6%

Sachs

3.1%

Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2%

Wealth

Management*

Barclays (LON:BARC) 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%

J.P.Morgan 2.2% 1.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7%

BofA Global 4.8% 0.3% 5.7%

Research 0.4%

2.9% 2.7%

Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0%

Bank

Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%

HSBC (LON:HSBA) 4.9% 0.5%

2.6% 2.3% 0.4% 6.3%

UBS Global 3.0% 2.2% 4.6% 0.6% - -

Research*

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U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) 2.50%

2.5%

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 2.10% 2.70%

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 2.60%

Investment 3.0%

Institute

Barclays 2.70% 2.4%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

BofA Global 2.50%

Research 3.5%

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 2.10%

Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%

HSBC

3.4%

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Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C

target yield NY

target

Goldman Sachs 5,200 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05

Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5

UBS Global 5,000 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00

Wealth

Management*

Wells Fargo 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10

Investment 5,100-5,300

Institute 156-160

Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25

BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,100 4.10% 1.10 135

Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25

HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 7.10

145

Oppenheimer

5,500

UBS Global 5,400 3.6% 1.12 140 7.00

© Reuters. The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger

Research*

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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