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Central Banks Take the Spotlight as Economic Anxiety Lingers: Eco Week

Published 03/08/2018, 00:01
Updated 03/08/2018, 03:36
© Bloomberg. Soybean, top, and corn plants grow in fields bordering a rural intersection in this aerial photograph taken above Ohio, Illinois, U.S., on Tuesday, June 19, 2018. A rout in commodities deepened as the threat of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies intensified, hitting markets from steel to soybeans. Soybean futures were among the biggest losers, falling as much as 7.2 percent to the lowest in more than two years. Corn slipped to the lowest since January, while wheat and cotton also dropped.
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(Bloomberg) -- It was one of the busiest weeks of the year for global central banks.

While the Federal Reserve stayed the course, the Bank of Japan and Bank of England took steps that drew reactions in financial markets.

Check back later on Friday for U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, that probably will show that the economy added jobs at a healthy clip again in July, but wages couldn’t break out of their holding pattern.

Here’s our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy.

Decision Time

The smorgasbord of central bank decisions this week largely were delivered as expected, with the Reserve Bank of India and BOE forging on in the tightening cycle while the Fed held pat with a hint toward a September rate hike amid a “strong” economy. The BOJ kept rates steady while announcing a range of policy changes, including adding forward guidance and allowing a wider bond-yield range. Brazil predictably left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.5 percent as inflation pressures abate.

Read More:

  • Carney Keeps BOE Rate Hikes on Agenda in Face of Brexit Risks
  • Powell Risks Egg on His Face After Sounding Sanguine on Stocks
  • Kenya MPC Cuts Key Rate to Spur ‘Below-Potential’ GDP Growth
  • Czech Rate Setters Flag Another Hike After Back-to-Back Increase
  • Mexico Leaves Key Rate Unchanged as Peso Hits Three-Month High

More Central Bankers’ Musings

Higher inflation alongside weaker growth makes things more complicated for the European Central Bank. The People’s Bank of China is said to be more flexible on loan quotas amid a cooling economy. The Swedish economy is heating up, allowing the Riksbank some room to consider tightening before year’s end. Russia’s thinking in the opposite direction, staying open to the possibility of another rate cut amid more growth risks.

Read More:

  • It’s Back to Square (NYSE:SQ) One in Turkey as Inflation Undoes Rate Hikes
  • Fiscal Policy Dials Up as Era of Easy Money Draws to a Close
  • No Rest for Emerging Currency Traders as G-7 Volatility Slumbers

Trade Chronicles

The U.S. is mulling higher tariffs for China goods at the same time as it aims to restart talks with its trade-war rival. China retorted that the U.S. needs to stop “blackmailing and pressuring” that will go nowhere, and the foreign minister publicly mocked the Americans for faulty economics. Things look sunnier on the Nafta front, with the U.S. and Mexico appearing close to a deal on cars.

Count Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) among those blaming the trade war for slashing its 2018 profits. Factories the world over are holding back orders, and U.S. manufacturers are considering production sites abroad. South Korea can breathe a bit easier amid rebounding exports backed by solid semiconductor demand.

Read More:

  • China’s Shift From Greenback Detractor to Record Dollar Borrower
  • Mnuchin Outlook for Sustained 3% Growth at Odds With Forecasters
  • U.S. Consumer Spending Stayed Solid in June Amid Income Growth

Consumer Angst

Building urgency to notch a Brexit deal cut Theresa May’s holiday short. While the U.K. leader holds out hope for Labour Party support for her Brexit plan, Bank of England chief Mark Carney says half his time is taken up by preparing the economy for the transition. Brexit alone could prompt the next housing crash, Bloomberg Economics finds.

Elsewhere in consumer unrest, New Zealand workers took to the streets to fuss about a decade of limp wage growth. Neighbor Australia is dealing with bubbling frustrations over its Aussie-per-minute population boom. And China is trying to quell protests and a social media explosion over hundreds of thousands of faulty vaccines given to children.

Read More:

  • Iranians Protest Prices in Key Cities Ahead of Sanctions Return
  • New Zealand Wages Gather Pace Even as Jobless Rate Climbs
  • U.K. Confidence Suffers in Face of BOE Hike, Brexit Deadline
  • Gender Gap in U.S. Consumer Comfort Widens to Record as Men Gain

Weekend Reading

  • The Humbled Science: Economists Have Lost the Ear of Politicians
  • We Talked to Economists About What Economists Are Missing Today
  • Higher Wealth Begets Higher Returns in Norway: Eco Research Wrap
  • Living Abroad Isn’t So Idyllic for U.S. Expats Facing New Taxes
  • Colombia Won’t Leap-Frog Portugal for Decades, Cardenas Admits
  • Sweden’s Economic Growth Surge May Be Too Good to Be True
  • Cracks Are Showing in Property Markets From Sydney to New York

Chart of the Week

China’s Empire of Money Is Reshaping Lives Across New Silk Road

© Bloomberg. Soybean, top, and corn plants grow in fields bordering a rural intersection in this aerial photograph taken above Ohio, Illinois, U.S., on Tuesday, June 19, 2018. A rout in commodities deepened as the threat of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies intensified, hitting markets from steel to soybeans. Soybean futures were among the biggest losers, falling as much as 7.2 percent to the lowest in more than two years. Corn slipped to the lowest since January, while wheat and cotton also dropped.

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