🎈 Up Big Today: Find today's biggest gainers (some over 50%!) with our free screenerTry Stock Screener

54% of Investing.com users see jobs missing on Friday

Published 05/09/2024, 13:42
© Reuters.
US500
-

Investing.com -- According to a survey on X (formerly Twitter), 54% of Investing.com users see U.S. jobs data missing expectations on Friday.

2,186 people voted in the poll, with the results showing that when asked if Friday's jobs report will beat or miss the consensus of 164,000, 54% said they expect a miss, and 46% said they expect a beat.

Investing.com Poll

A miss could give the Federal Reserve cover to lower rates by 50 basis points instead of 25bps.

According to data from the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) 30-Day Fed Fund futures, the likelihood of a larger 50bps rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September has seen a notable increase in recent days.

The latest Sevens Report said on Thursday that "for the first time in nearly three years, a 'Too Cold' jobs report poses the bigger risk to stocks as the growth implications of Friday's jobs report are more important to investors than whether the jobs report makes the Fed cut 25 bps or 50 bps."

"The market would prefer gradual but consistent rate cuts and stable economic growth over dramatic rate cuts and collapsing growth. Put differently, investors are worried the Fed is behind the curve on rate cuts and Friday's jobs report will either 1) Calm or 2) Exacerbate those fears," adds the firm.

Meanwhile, BofA said in its preview note that it forecasts solid jobs growth in August, expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k after coming in at 114k in July.

"Public sector hiring should rise 30k on the back of local employment. Hence, we see private payrolls rising by 170k. Education & healthcare hiring should remain robust," they wrote.

"We look for the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate to decline a tenth each, to 4.2% and 62.6%, respectively. We think average hourly earnings and average weekly hours will both rise by a tenth to 0.3% m/m and 34.3, respectively," added the bank.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.