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UK statistics agency told to learn from mismeasuring recession

Published 08/07/2014, 16:32
UK statistics agency told to learn from mismeasuring recession

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's statistics agency should draw lessons from its initial failure to spot the speed at which Britain's economy entered recession in 2008, according to an independent review of the country's official data.

While the review found that Britain's economic data were of a good standard, they may not "be at the leading edge" compared with other countries in some areas.

The review is the most detailed of its kind in a decade, and was written by ex-Bank of England policymaker Kate Barker and statistician Art Ridgeway, formerly of Statistics Canada.

The review drew attention to large revisions made in 2011 to the path of gross domestic product during Britain's worst post-war recession, when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) had underestimated the how fast the economy contracted in the middle of 2008 and how quickly it began to recover in 2009.

"It is important for policymakers that early estimates of the quarterly data are robust, especially at turning points in the economy," the review said.

"(The) ONS should look back at how the various processes and procedures contributed to these revisions in order to consider whether there are any lessons for the future."

The review also said the ONS should establish a joint group with the Bank of England to develop full flow-of-funds data, which help measure debt levels across the economy.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said last November that "a lot of work" needed to be done to raise the standard of the flow-of-funds data to international levels.

The review added that the ONS had sometimes treated corrections in more minor data series "with less urgency" and there had been "some loss of confidence" in price adjustments for construction data in recent months.

"This independent review confirms that the UK's National Accounts data are of a good standard and bear comparison with those of similar developed economies around the world," said ONS director general Glen Watson.

It said it would assess the implication of the review's recommendations, and possibly revise its five-year plan for the national accounts published last year.

In last year's plan, the ONS said the scale of GDP revisions had been kept to a "modest" scale, and that its experience had led to a continuous improvement programme for GDP estimates.

(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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