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UK manufacturing stuck in stop-start cycle, CBI survey finds

Published 24/06/2024, 14:21
© Reuters.  UK manufacturing stuck in stop-start cycle, CBI survey finds

Proactive Investors - UK manufacturing sector showed an improvement in recent months, although inflation expectations picked up among those in the industry.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends survey showed an overall reading of -18 for June, an improvement from the previous -33 and better than the estimated value of -26.

Manufacturing output volumes were "broadly unchanged" in the three months to June, after rising for the first time in a year and a half in the quarter to May.

A +3% output balance was given for the June survey, from +14% in May's, with increases in only four out of 17 sub-sectors (food, drink & tobacco; motors & transport; plastics; furniture & upholstery) offset by falls elsewhere.

Output is expected to rise modestly in the three months to September, the survey found, with a +13% balance.

Total order books improved in May, even though there was a sharp deterioration in export order volumes.

On inflation, expectations for selling price inflation picked up, with prices expected to rise at an above-average pace over the three months to September, after having softened in the May survey after a pick-up earlier in the year.

On that CBI industrial trends survey, Ben Jones, the CBI's economist, says: "We’ve seen a stop-start recovery in manufacturing output in recent months, with higher activity over the last quarter concentrated in a relatively small number of manufacturing sub-sectors.

"But it’s encouraging to see that manufacturers remain confident the economy is heading in the right direction and our June survey suggests that the recovery should broaden out over the summer.

"One note of caution is that order books remain soft. The sharp deterioration in export order books is particularly striking and is something to keep an eye on in the coming months."

Whoever wins next week's general election "will be inheriting a challenging economic environment", Jones concluded.

Read more on Proactive Investors UK

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