💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

Roaring manufacturing points to broadening recovery

Published 01/07/2014, 13:50
Roaring manufacturing points to broadening recovery

By Ana Nicolaci da Costa

LONDON (Reuters) - British manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest rate in seven months in June, the latest sign that the consumer-led recovery is broadening out and becoming more balanced.

New orders flowed in at the fastest rate since November and manufacturers took on staff at the quickest pace since March 2011, although output growth slowed slightly and input costs rose for the first time since January.

Analysts said the strength of the data reinforced the case for an interest rate hike this year, as did a separate report showing lower productivity in the first quarter of 2014.

"An impressive and encouraging survey across the board," Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight said about the manufacturing survey.

The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in June from 57.0 in May - its highest since November and beating expectations for a small fall in a Reuters poll. It also topped readings in other European countries.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, expected manufacturing output in the second quarter to have expanded by more than the 1.5 percent seen in the first quarter.

"With (BoE) Governor Mark Carney stressing that the strength of data will drive when the Bank of England will first edge up interest rates, the robust June manufacturing PMI will likely be seen as supportive to a move in late-2014 rather than early-2015," Archer added.

British government bonds fell and sterling hit its highest in nearly six years after higher-than-forecast manufacturing data added to the case for a rate rise this year. [GBP/]

BoE officials have recently given mixed signals on the timing of a potential interest rate rise. While they say markets have underestimated the likelihood of a move in 2014, they also think more slack needs to be used up before that happens.

Data from the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday suggested this could happen faster than the BoE expects, as weak productivity means industries have to employ more people to produce the same amount of goods.

Output per hour fell by 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, the ONS said, suggesting a sharp pick-up in productivity will be needed for full-year growth to match the BoE's 1 percent forecast.

Pay pressures remain modest, however. The ONS said unit wage costs for the whole economy eased 0.5 percent and for manufacturing fell 1.8 percent in early 2014 - below the BoE's forecast for a 1 percent rise this year.

"A solid recovery is in train... That has not yet translated into much pick-up in wage growth yet, but some surveys do suggest building pressure," said Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Berenberg.

© Reuters. An employee works on a 2013 Mini at BMW's plant in Oxford, southern England

"There is a clear case for starting the process of moving away from emergency settings of monetary policy over the next six months."

He expected the BoE to raise rates by 25 basis points in November from a record-low of 0.5 percent currently.

(Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.