💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

UK economy shrank less than thought in 2008-09 recession - ONS

Published 30/06/2014, 15:11
UK economy shrank less than thought in 2008-09 recession - ONS

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's economy suffered less than previously thought during the 2008-09 recession, new figures showed on Monday - although this partly reflects weaker growth just before the financial crisis.

The Office for National Statistics is revamping how it calculates the size of Britain's economy, and on Monday it published new estimates of annual growth in gross domestic product from 1998 to 2009.

The biggest changes were for 2007 and 2009. For 2007, GDP growth was reduced to 2.4 percent from 3.4 percent, turning one of the strongest years of the decade into one that was average.

By contrast, in 2009 - when the economy was thought to have shrunk by 5.2 percent - output in fact declined by only 4.1 percent. The year still remains by far the worst for Britain's economy since at least World War Two.

Taking the changes together, GDP in 2009 now appears to be 5.2 percent lower than it was in 2007, compared with an earlier estimate of 6.0 percent lower, said Daniel Vernazza, an economist at UniCredit.

"The new measures had the effect of smoothing the business cycle," he said.

The revisions reflect European Union-wide changes in what is considered the best way to represent the size of the economy -for example, by treating corporate research as output rather than a cost. It also includes more eye-catching changes, such as estimates of the activity of prostitutes and drug dealers.

Figures for more recent years are due in September.

Overall, the average annual rate of growth between 1998 and 2009 was unchanged at 2.2 percent, the ONS said.

But the significant changes to some years might have led the Bank of England to make different decisions on interest rates if the new figures had been used at the time, said Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citi.

"Policy might well have been more appropriate had the initial ONS data been more accurate or the (BoE been) better able to anticipate future revisions," he said.

© Reuters. File photograph shows the Corus steelworks at Redcar, northern England

"All this is a useful reminder that policymakers and investors have to take account of possible future revisions -which may take years to come through - when assessing UK GDP data," he added.

Saunders said he expected significant upward revisions to recent GDP data, which already shows an annualised growth rate of more than 3 percent.

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Larry King)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.