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German business morale hits highest level since June

Published 24/04/2015, 09:55
© Reuters.  German business morale hits highest level since June

By Michelle Martin

BERLIN (Reuters) - German business morale rose to its highest level in almost a year in April, a leading survey showed on Friday, in a sign that Europe's largest economy has started the second quarter on a strong footing.

Ifo's business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, climbed to 108.6 in April from 107.9 in March. That was its highest reading since June 2014 and was slightly higher than the Reuters consensus forecast for 108.4.

"German business optimism seems to be unstoppable, paving the road for an excellent year of growth," said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING.

However, he cautioned against being too optimistic, pointing to the Greek debt crisis, a soft spell for the U.S. economy and weaker Chinese growth.

The Ifo survey showed that companies felt more upbeat about their current situation than in March but they became slightly more pessimistic about their outlook for the next six months.

Thomas Gitzel, economist at VP Bank, said the weaker economic outlook showed that the economy could not grow much more at the moment despite a strong domestic environment thanks to rising wages and low interest rates.

"The Grexit discussion, the crisis in Yemen and the Ukraine conflict are weighing on willingness to invest and slamming the breaks on the global export industry," he said.

"The export economy can't get any stronger but there's no reason to lament - it's solid but the Ifo business climate index is telling us that it's just not enough for new growth records."

Another survey published this week showed investors are feeling more pessimistic in April, though they still see further growth potential.

Nonetheless, other recent data and forecasts have generally painted a rosy picture of the economy. Earlier this week the German government raised its 2015 economic growth forecast to 1.8 percent as rising employment, bigger paychecks and cheap oil boost private consumption.

Leading economic institutes are even more bullish, estimating that the economy will grow 2.1 percent this year.

Consumer morale has surged to its highest level in 13-1/2 years, the private sector has expanded and both exports and industrial output have risen.

The Ifo survey showed improvements in the manufacturing, construction and wholesaling sectors while sentiment amongst retailers worsened.

(editing by Noah Barkin) OLGBBUS Reuters UK Online Report Business News 20150424T082519+0000

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