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Is inflation canceled? Container shipping costs are back to pre-pandemic levels.
Prices as of 4 pm ET, 11/21/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE Fed talk
- 11 am - Mester
- 2:15 pm - George
- 2:45 pm - Bullard
Tomorrow = big data day
- Building permits, Durable Goods, Initial Jobless, S&P Global Flash PMIs, New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, EIA stocks change, and FOMC minutes
Q3 earnings update
- 94% of S&P 500 reported
- Overall EPS growth 2.2% - lowest growth in 2 years
Earnings outlook
- Analysts continue cutting EPS estimates
- But sales estimates remain resilient
- Long way to go to get through earnings recession
China lockdowns surge
- 27,307 new cases reported yesterday (just shy of daily record)
- Guangzhou (manufacturing hub) at epicenter of current wave
-
Lockdowns affecting ~20% of China’s total economic output
- 15.6% last week
- Goldman’s Effective Lockdown Index:
Crude $81.5 +1.6%
- Prices drop on reports OPEC considering production output increase
- Losses pared after Saudis deny report
-
Effects of lower prices
- Suggests weaker global demand, increased recessionary worries
- But also ease inflationary forces, support less aggressive monetary policy
CRYPTO UPDATE Grayscale refuses to share proof of reserves
- Cites “security concerns”
-
Shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC: GBTC) trading at deep discount
- As low as 50% yesterday
Genesis liquidity problems
- Seeking to raise at least $1 billion fresh capital
- Sought funding from Binance, Apollo Global
- If unsuccessful bankruptcy likely
Important: Grayscale and Genesis are both Digital Currency Group companies…
Digital asset flows
- Short investment products responsible for 75% of inflows last week
-
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) inflows of $14 million
- After short products, net outflows $4.3 million
- Short Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) products record inflows of $14 million
- Total AUM at lowest in 2 years
- Altcoins saw broad outlows
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