Benzinga - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas lowered the probability of an Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETF getting the green light by the upcoming May deadline.
What Happened: Balchunas said, “Yeah our odds of ETH ETF approval by May deadline are down to 35%. I get all the reasons they SHOULD approve it (and we personally believe they should) but all the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5 months out for BTC spot are not there this time."
Yeah our odds of eth ETF approval by May deadline are down to 35%. I get all the reasons they SHOULD approve it (and we personally believe they should) but all the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for btc spot are not there this time. Note: 35% isn't 0%, still… https://t.co/QWQOGZjDC5— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 11, 2024
Balchunas noted that the possibility of approval is not entirely off the table, holding onto a long-term positive outlook for its eventual realization. "Note: 35% isn’t 0%, still possible, and long-term we think it will happen."
This comes as Ethereum surpasses the $4,000 mark, amid anticipation of its network upgrade and the potential nod from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its ETF.
However, this wave of optimism is being put to the test. Predictions on Polymarket, an online betting platform, suggest there is a 36% chance that the Ether ETF will get approved. The forecast dipped even lower for a brief time on March 11, touching 24%.
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Why It Matters: Meanwhile, the largest American cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, met with the SEC last week to discuss an ETF proposal from the Grayscale. Records from the SEC, released on Wednesday, revealed the contents of the presentation were focused on Grayscale’s intention to offer a spot at Ethereum ETF.
Back in October, Grayscale sought the regulatory authority’s permission to transform its Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF that would mirror Ethereum’s price. If approved, this ETF would allow investors to purchase shares on a stock exchange, thereby obtaining direct exposure to the value of Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Last week, during a conversation with Yahoo Finance, SEC Chair Gary Gensler refrained from giving a definite answer when approached about the approval of ETH ETF. He said, “I don't want to prejudge anyone filing, and as you said, there are ten filings in front of us."
Price Action: At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $4,039, up 4.70% over the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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