Benzinga - Institutional investors have been dumping stocks for the last 12 months. You have to ask yourself some serious questions when you see this.
Market
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 5/15/23
Macro According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets give virtually zero (0.4%) chance that interest will remain at their current level of 5-5.25bps by the end of the year.
- Yesterday, however, Fed officials pushed back on those odds.
- Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he doesn’t predict any rate cuts until “well into 2024”.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (who is a voting member this year), meanwhile, said the Fed still has “more work to do…to bring down inflation”.
Total consumer debt has hit a new record at over $17 trillion.
- The fresh highs come despite the lowest level of mortgage originations since 2014.
- For the first time in 20 years, consumers failed to pay down their credit card balances in Q1.
- This suggests households are struggling under the pressure of higher prices.
Manufacturing activity in New York collapsed to its lowest level in 4 months, falling to -31.8 in May.
- Excluding the pandemic, the 42.6 drop was the largest ever.
- Relative to expectations, it was the 3rd largest drop on record.
- The biggest drops were seen in new orders (-53.1), shipments (-40.3), and inventories (-20.5).
- Was April’s 10.8 reading a headfake?
Zero Hedge
Stocks Mark Kolanovic has reiterated his underweight call for US and EU equities.
- As the X-date approaches, the top JPMorgan strategist points to the debt ceiling impasse as a catalyst for stock market volatility ahead.
- He cites 2011’s debt event as a roadmap for investors if the “issue goes down to the wire”, as it appears likely to do so.
Activist investor Nelson Peltz has upped his stake in Walt Disney.
- After cutting its position by 34% by the end of March, his firm (Trian Partners) has purchased another 500k shares, bringing its total share count to 6.4 million.
- Peltz had backed off his push for a board seat in February after the company announced a $5.5 billion cost-cutting plan.
Here’s what a couple of Wall Street’s biggest names were buying/selling in Q1:
-
Warren Buffett:
- New: (NYSE: COF), (NYSE: DEO), (NYSE: VTS)
- Closed: (NYSE: BK), (NYSE: USB), (NYSE: RH), (NYSE: TSM)
- Add: (NASDAQ: AAPL), (NYSE: OXY), (NYSE: HPQ), (NASDAQ: PARA), (NYSE: MKL)
- Trim: (NYSE: CVX), (NASDAQ: ATVI), (NYSE: GM), (NYSE: CE), (NYSE: ALLY), (NYSE: MCK), (NYSE: AON), (NASDAQ: AMZN)
-
Michael Burry:
- New: (NYSE: SIG), (NYSE: NYCB), (NASDAQ: ZM), (NYSE: COF), (NASDAQ: LILA), (NYSE: CI), (NYSE: WFC), (NYSE: WAL), (NYSE: NOV), (NYSE: DVN), (NASDAQ: PACW), (NASDAQ: HBAN), (OTC: FRCB)
- Closed: (NYSE: BKI), (NYSE: WWW), (NYSE: MGM), (NASDAQ: QRTEP), (NASDAQ: SKYW)
- Add: (NASDAQ: JD), (NYSE: BABA)
- Trim: (NYSE: COHR), (NYSE: GEO)
Energy The US is planning to buy up to 3 million barrels of sour crude oil in August to restock its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
- The government drained the SPR by 2.9 million barrels last week.
- At ~372 million barrels, reserves are currently at the lowest level since 1983.
Earnings Yesterday’s highlights:
Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU): $0.04 EPS (vs. $0.03 expected), $1.62 billion in sales (vs. $1.39B expected).
- Net income reached $142 million on revenue which nearly doubled YoY.
- The company added 4.5 million customers in Q1, bringing its global total to 79.1 million.
Monday.com (NASDAQ: MNDY): $0.14 EPS (vs. -$0.28 expected), $162.3 million in sales (vs. $155.3M expected).
- The company revealed plans to open its platform to third-party developers to build AI apps.
- It also posted stronger-than-expected billings and raised its full-year revenue outlook.
What we’re watching today:
- Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
- Sea Limited (NYSE: SE)
- Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU)
- Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD)
- Keysight Technologies (NYSE: KEYS)
- Tencent Music (NYSE: TME)
- On Holding (NYSE: ONON)
- Doximity (NYSE: DOCS)
Top Headlines
- Icahn probe: Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating allegations made by Hindenburg Research against Icahn Enterprises.
- El Niño: The periodic weather phenomenon has the potential to disrupt global commodity markets.
- Russian oil: Exports of Russian oil hit their highest level since the invasion of Ukraine in April.
- Survey says: BofA’s latest global fund managers’ survey revealed investors are the most pessimistic they’ve been all year.
- Fed is done: Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones thinks the Fed is done raising rates and predicts stocks end the year higher from here.
- Settlement: Wells Fargo will pay $1 billion to settle a lawsuit accusing it of making misleading compliance statements.
- Super-app moves: Elon Musk’s Twitter made its first acquisition in job-matching tech startup Laskie.
- Musk subpoena: Elon Musk has been subpoenaed in a lawsuit against JPMorgan over its relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
Crypto
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 5/15/23
- Secret deal: The SEC says Jump Trading engaged in a secret deal to prop up stablecoin TerraUSD.
- Feet dragging: The SEC has rejected Coinbase’s request for regulatory clarity saying it has no requirement to do so.
- Asset flows: Digital investment products saw their 4th straight week of outflows totaling $54 million.
- Correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has dropped to its weakest since 2021.
- Active users: Despite rising transactions, the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network is falling.
Deals
- Approved: Despite UK and US opposition, the EU has approved Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard.
- Blocked: The FTC plans to block Amgen’s $27.8 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics.
- Burger battle: Activist investor Engaged Capital is preparing to launch a proxy fight for 3 board seats at Shake Shack.
- Credit investing: Private equity group TPG will buy debt and real estate manager Angelo Gordon for $2.7 billion.
- VW sale: Russia’s government has approved the sale of Volkswagen’s Russian assets to auto dealer Avilon for ~$140 million.
Meme Of The Day
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