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Bitcoin struggling to rebound following post-ETF crash, return below $40,000 in sight?

Published 15/01/2024, 08:46
© Reuters
BTC/USD
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Investing.com - Bitcoin is posting slight gains this Monday morning, after a weekend of declines, which in turn followed a real plunge in the cryptocurrency market last Friday.

As a reminder, BTC/USD peaked at close to $49,000 last Thursday, the day after the SEC approved Bitcoin spot ETFs, before plummeting to a low of $41,500 on Friday, and has since rebounded only slightly, trading at $42,500 at the time of writing.

As many observers had feared, the SEC's validation of spot BTC ETFs, which had been widely anticipated, led to profit-taking after a final surge in the face of the announcement.

This week, crypto investors will be keeping an eye on the popularity of the recently approved ETFs, bearing in mind that trading is due to start on Tuesday, and that strong inflows of funds would automatically be a bullish factor for BTC.

The macroeconomic backdrop will also need to be monitored following last week's better-than-expected US inflation figures for December, bearing in mind that if the data causes expectations of rate cuts to fall in the second quarter, cryptocurrencies could see red.

Conversely, if the statistics confirm the prospect of a rate cut in March, a scenario currently considered more than 80% likely, Bitcoin and other digital assets should benefit.

Technical thresholds to watch for on Bitcoin

From a chart perspective, the uptrend line seen on the D1 chart since November 2024 appears to have halted the recent correction at BTC/USD.

Bitcoin - Graphique journalier

A break below $41,000 would correspond to a break below this trend line, which would send a negative signal, with $40,000 as the next target. On the upside, the $45,000 area is the first major hurdle, before last week's peak at $48,750 and then the key $50,000 threshold.

Translated from French using DeepL.

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