Investing.com -- Since hitting an all-time high of $73,777 in mid-March, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase. This period of rangebound trading has dampened market enthusiasm, but historical trends and current indicators suggest a breakout is imminent, H.C. Wainwright noted in a recent research report.
Throughout most of Q2 2024, the original cryptocurrency traded within a range, exiting the quarter about 10% below Q1 levels. This decline was attributed to miner capitulation driven by post-halving economics, large liquidations by the German government, fears surrounding Mt. Gox repayments, and a hawkish Federal Reserve, the report explains.
“Despite these headwinds, U.S. spot BTC ETFs managed to attract around $2.4 billion of net inflows for the quarter, compared to $12 billion in Q1. The average BTC price for the quarter was $65,687, marking a 22.6% quarter-over-quarter increase from $53,579 in Q1. As of Q3, BTC has averaged $61,025, down 7.1% from Q2, primarily due to large liquidations of seized BTC by the German government, which concluded in mid-July.”
Following a rough start to Q3, Bitcoin prices rebounded to over $68,000 driven by renewed ETF inflows and positive momentum around pro-crypto presidential candidate Donald Trump’s increasing election odds. In the first three weeks of Q3, U.S. spot ETF inflows have already exceeded total net flows from all of Q2, standing at over $2.5 billion as of July 19.
H.C. Wainwright expects Bitcoin to continue range-bound price action in the third quarter before retesting recent highs and printing new all-time highs in Q4.
"BTC production plummeted after the halving, as expected," noted H.C. Wainwright. Total transaction fees awarded to miners increased 16.4% to 6,804 BTC in Q2, accounting for 12% of total block rewards, up from 7% in Q1. Two events, the launch of the Runes protocol and a glitch in OKX’s fee algorithm, caused short-term spikes in transaction fees, contributing to over 2,000 BTC worth of transaction fees for the quarter.
Meanwhile, total miner revenues fell 22% quarter-over-quarter to $3.7 billion in Q2, as higher prices and transaction fees were not enough to offset the reduced block subsidy following the halving. Per H.C. Wainwright’s calculations, the combined market cap of public crypto miners was unchanged at $22 billion in Q2 but has since reached all-time highs, with the sector’s market cap exceeding $30 billion for the first time in history.
"Last week's system outage was an important marketing event for Bitcoin, as it demonstrated the importance of having access to a resilient, secure, decentralized, and distributed system," H.C. Wainwright wrote.