Benzinga - Traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket were showing confidence that the U.S. will see the launch of one or more Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the next two weeks.
Currently, the "Yes" side of the contract "Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan. 15" is trading at 89 cents, indicating an 89% chance that this much-awaited event will occur in the latter half of January, Coindesk reported.
This probability marks a significant rise from about 50% a month earlier.
The market has been abuzz with speculation about the launch of a U.S.-based spot ETF since early October.
This anticipation contributed to Bitcoin's price surge of over 55%, with the cryptocurrency trading above $45,000.
The optimism stemmed from the belief that the ETFs could attract billions of dollars in investor funds to the Bitcoin market.
Polymarket, launched in 2020, has gained prominence as a leading prediction market, offering investors opportunities to place wagers on various events.
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To date, traders have staked $437,394 on a prediction contract specifically related to the ETF, which will resolve as "Yes" if the SEC approves any ETF by Jan. 15.
According to Reuters, the SEC might inform the 14 applicants for spot ETFs as early as Tuesday or Wednesday about their approval to launch ETFs in the coming weeks.
Some traders are purchasing shares on the "No" side of the contract as a hedge against their bullish positions in the spot or futures markets.
They anticipate that Bitcoin's price could fall if the SEC postpones the expected ETF launch. One trader commented, "I'm buying No as insurance against my Long positions. If the ETF will not be approved, the market will dump hard, but I will still make profits."
This strategy reflects a cautious approach to the potential market volatility surrounding the ETF decision.
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