On Monday, TD Cowen made adjustments to its financial model for Ascendis Pharma (NASDAQ:ASND), resulting in a slight increase in the company's price target. The new target is set at $160, up from the previous $157, while the firm maintained its Buy rating on the stock.
The analyst from TD Cowen, in a statement regarding the update, noted that the revised price target now reflects a valuation of 25 times the forecasted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year 2028, a change from the earlier multiple of 35 times for the fiscal year 2027. The anticipated non-GAAP EPS has been adjusted to €7.18, which is a decrease of €0.57 from prior estimates. The discount rate applied to these earnings remains unchanged at 10%.
In the third quarter, Ascendis Pharma's growth hormone therapy Skytrofa is projected to possibly fall short of consensus revenue estimates of €61 million, with the firm's own forecast being €55 million. The expected underperformance is attributed to modest quarter-over-quarter prescription growth, increased competition from other weekly growth hormone therapies, the return of daily growth hormone supplies, and the gradual nature of realizing benefits from expanded market access.
Additionally, revenue for Yorvipath, another Ascendis Pharma product, is anticipated to align with TD Cowen's estimate of €6 million, which is slightly below the consensus estimate of €8 million. Revenue for this product is expected to remain flat until existing inventory of Natpar is depleted.
The analyst anticipates that the full impact of Ascendis Pharma's hypoparathyroidism treatment launch will be a more significant story in fiscal year 2025, with Yorvipath's complete market introduction slated for the first quarter of 2025.
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