On Friday, Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) maintained its Buy rating and $310.00 stock price target from Brookline Capital Markets following the FDA's approval of the company's latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation. The new vaccine targets the KP.2 variant of the virus and is based on FDA guidance.
This approval comes after a June 7, 2024, submission for an updated vaccine to address the JN.1 lineage, in line with recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO), TAG-CO-VAC, and the European Medicines Agency's Emergency Task Force (ETF).
The FDA's authorization of Moderna's vaccine for the upcoming 2024-2025 season is expected to enable the company to have the vaccine ready by early fall. The timing of the FDA's review also allows for the possibility of administering the COVID-19 vaccine concurrently with the annual flu shot.
The analyst from Brookline Capital Markets anticipates that Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine sales will include approximately 15.9 million doses in the United States and 19.1 million doses internationally.
According to the analyst's estimates, the 2024 sales of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines could reach $2.7 billion, representing 83.2% of the company's total revenue for the year. Looking ahead, the analyst projects that vaccine sales could increase to $25.8 billion by 2030, which would account for 35.6% of Moderna's revenue at that time.
Furthermore, Moderna has announced that additional regulatory applications for the updated COVID-19 vaccines targeting either the KP.2 or JN.1 variants are under review by other regulatory agencies. Decisions on these applications are expected in the coming weeks, which could further impact the company's vaccine sales and distribution.
In other recent news, Moderna has received approval from the European Commission for its mRNA-based respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA®, for adults aged 60 and above. The vaccine, aimed at preventing severe RSV outcomes, is supported by data from the ConquerRSV Phase 3 clinical trial, demonstrating an efficacy of 83.7% against RSV lower respiratory tract disease.
In financial news, Moderna experienced a net loss and a drop in COVID-19 vaccine sales outside the U.S. in the second quarter of 2024, revising its 2024 net product sales outlook to between $3.0 billion and $3.5 billion.
Analysts have provided mixed reviews, with Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) upgrading Moderna shares from Sell to Hold, RBC Capital downgrading from 'Outperform' to 'Sector Perform', and Piper Sandler maintaining an Overweight rating despite a reduced price target. These recent developments provide a snapshot of Moderna's current situation in the market.
InvestingPro Insights
As Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) secures FDA approval for its new COVID-19 vaccine formulation, the financial metrics and market sentiment around the company offer a mixed picture. According to InvestingPro data, Moderna's market capitalization stands at $31.15 billion, reflecting the market's current valuation of the company. Despite the positive news of FDA approval, analysts have flagged concerns, with 11 analysts revising their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, indicating potential headwinds for the company's financial performance.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that Moderna holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which could provide a cushion against short-term financial uncertainties. Moreover, liquid assets exceed short-term obligations, giving the company some financial flexibility. However, it is worth noting that analysts do not expect the company to be profitable this year, and they anticipate a sales decline in the current year. These insights highlight a cautious outlook for Moderna's near-term profitability, despite the recent FDA approval.
For investors considering Moderna's stock, it's important to be aware of the volatility in stock price movements, as indicated by a significant price drop over the last three months. For those seeking more detailed analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips on Moderna, providing a comprehensive view of potential investment considerations.
The article's discussion on Moderna's vaccine sales and revenue projections can be further informed by these InvestingPro insights, painting a more nuanced picture of the company's financial health and market expectations. To explore more in-depth tips and metrics, readers can visit InvestingPro for a thorough analysis.
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