On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) updated its outlook on Frontdoor Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR), increasing the price target to $46.00 from the previous $41.00 while maintaining a Sell rating on the stock.
The adjustment follows Frontdoor's third-quarter earnings call, during which the company reported a strong performance, with gross profit and adjusted EBITDA surpassing Goldman Sachs and Street estimates. Total (EPA:TTEF) revenues were slightly below expectations but fell within the company's prior guidance.
The company's rebranding efforts with its American Home Shield (AHS) brand were highlighted as a significant positive for the quarter. Despite the mixed signals from the overall housing market, which poses a challenge, the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel showed promising signs from the AHS marketing campaign.
The company's future strategy will focus on improving targeting, building consideration, increasing leads, and optimizing discount strategies.
Management expressed a generally positive outlook for Frontdoor's business mix in the coming years, even though the real estate market remains difficult, and certain tailwinds experienced in 2024 may not extend into 2025 and beyond. The next Investor Day for Frontdoor is scheduled for February 27, 2025, when the company is expected to present its fourth-quarter results for 2024 and provide a framework and guidance for 2025.
Goldman Sachs noted that while the recent results have consistently exceeded margin expectations, the decision to maintain a Sell rating is based on a comparative risk/reward analysis within their broader coverage universe.
The firm anticipates that the upcoming Investor Day will be an opportunity to gain further insights into the company's performance and strategic direction.
In other recent news, Frontdoor Inc. reported a robust Q3 with a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million and a 40% surge in net income to $100 million. The company also saw significant growth in its adjusted EBITDA, which rose by 29% to $165 million. A key highlight was the substantial improvement in Frontdoor's gross margins, which reached a record 53% from last year's 43%.
Frontdoor also completed a $400 million share repurchase program ahead of schedule and initiated a new one worth $650 million. The company's strategic advances include the nearing completion of the 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty acquisition and expected revenue of over $100 million from the on-demand business.
Despite the challenging real estate market, Frontdoor anticipates a full-year revenue of approximately $1.83 billion, marking a 3% increase, and an adjusted EBITDA of around $430 million. However, a decline in total home warranties by about 4% is expected in 2024.
InvestingPro Insights
Frontdoor Inc.'s recent performance aligns with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $4.01 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the home services industry. Frontdoor's P/E ratio of 16.52 suggests a relatively moderate valuation, which is particularly interesting given the company's strong financial performance noted in the Goldman Sachs report.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Frontdoor is trading near its 52-week high and has shown a strong return over the last three months, corroborating the positive sentiment expressed in the earnings call. The company's revenue growth of 5.6% over the last twelve months, coupled with an impressive EBITDA growth of 37.01%, underscores the effectiveness of its rebranding efforts and strategic initiatives.
Furthermore, Frontdoor's operating income margin of 17.18% indicates efficient operations, which aligns with the company's ability to exceed margin expectations as mentioned in the Goldman Sachs analysis. The high return on assets of 17.64% further supports the company's operational efficiency.
For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips that could provide deeper insights into Frontdoor's financial health and market position.
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