On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) updated its outlook on Marriott International (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MAR), increasing the hotel chain's price target from $267.00 to $280.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's analysis highlighted that despite Marriott downgrading its fourth-quarter forecast due to slower net fee growth and lower owned and leased profits than anticipated, the company's long-term prospects appear positive.
Marriott International has reported a more optimistic view of its long-term net unit growth (NUG), with expectations for 2024 at the high end of previous forecasts at 6.5%. Additionally, the company's commentary on revenue per available room (revPAR) for 2025 is in line with that of its peers. Goldman Sachs projects a 2.0% revPAR growth for Marriott.
A key factor in the revised price target is Marriott's new cost savings initiative, which is expected to yield $80-$90 million in general and administrative (G&A) savings in the next year. This program is anticipated to compensate for the anticipated slowdown in revPAR growth.
As a result of the cost savings program and its impact on the company's efficiency, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2025 EBITDA estimate for Marriott upwards to $5.34 billion from the prior estimate of $5.27 billion. The firm suggests that the efficiency program will more than makeup for the lower fee revenues, leading to the decision to raise the price target, which indicates a 9% upside potential for the stock.
In other recent news, Marriott International reported its third-quarter 2024 results, revealing growth in several key areas despite regional challenges.
The hotel giant noted a nearly 6% year-over-year increase in net rooms and a 3% rise in global RevPAR, with group RevPAR seeing a significant 10% surge. Marriott also announced the launch of a new mid-scale brand, City Express by Marriott, and reported a record 219 million members in its loyalty program.
Despite these positive developments, Marriott faced challenges in Greater China and noted flat leisure demand. To address these issues, the company has implemented cost-saving initiatives and anticipates restructuring charges in the fourth quarter. Analysts from various firms noted Marriott's growth in gross fee revenues and adjusted EBITDA, along with an increase in adjusted EPS.
Looking ahead, Marriott expects global RevPAR growth of 2%-3% for Q4 and gross fees to reach between $5.13 billion and $5.15 billion for the full year 2024.
InvestingPro Insights
Marriott International's financial metrics and market performance align with Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook. According to InvestingPro data, Marriott boasts impressive gross profit margins of 81.77% for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, reflecting the company's strong operational efficiency. This aligns with Goldman Sachs' positive view on Marriott's cost-saving initiatives.
The company's P/E ratio of 24.35 (adjusted for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024) suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for Marriott's earnings, possibly due to its growth prospects and market position. This valuation is supported by Marriott's strong financial performance, with a 35.42% price total return over the past year and trading at 96.19% of its 52-week high.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Marriott has been aggressively buying back shares, which could be seen as a sign of management's confidence in the company's future. Additionally, the stock generally trades with low price volatility, which may appeal to investors seeking stability in their portfolio.
For readers interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 14 additional tips for Marriott International, providing a comprehensive view of the company's financial health and market position.
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