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ExxonMobil stock price target cut, sustains buy rating on earnings report

EditorNatashya Angelica
Published 04/11/2024, 15:58
© Reuters.
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On Monday, TD Cowen adjusted its stock price target for ExxonMobil (NYSE: NYSE:XOM), reducing it to $127.00 from the previous $130.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows an earnings report where ExxonMobil's performance surpassed expectations, but the stock did not reflect the strong results.

The analyst pointed to several factors for the stock's underperformance, including market positioning, a less than anticipated contribution from ExxonMobil's "advantaged" Upstream assets, and the expected removal of significant timing tailwinds from the third quarter in the upcoming fourth-quarter estimates.

The analyst also highlighted the potential of two emerging low carbon products, which are projected to have a total addressable market (TAM) of $30 billion each by 2030. Details on these products are anticipated to be shared during ExxonMobil's Analyst Day. Moreover, ExxonMobil is expected to present a new plan for the Permian Basin, which will now include Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), along with updated synergy expectations.

The Analyst Day is set to offer investors insights into ExxonMobil's strategy and operations, including the integration of PXD and the company's approach to expanding its low carbon product portfolio. The discussion on the Permian plan and the synergies is particularly noteworthy following ExxonMobil's acquisition activities in the region.

ExxonMobil's focus on low carbon products aligns with the broader industry trend towards sustainable energy solutions and could play a significant role in the company's future growth. The market is looking forward to the Analyst Day for further details on these initiatives and their expected contribution to ExxonMobil's valuation.

In summary, while ExxonMobil's stock has not kept pace with its earnings performance, the company's strategic plans for the Permian Basin and its investment in low carbon technologies may provide a roadmap for future growth. The updated price target from TD Cowen reflects these considerations and the current market dynamics affecting ExxonMobil's stock.

In other recent news, ExxonMobil has reported strong third-quarter earnings of $8.6 billion, marking one of the best in a decade. Barclays (LON:BARC) maintained its Overweight rating on the company, with a price target of $137, highlighting the company's robust downstream operations and momentum in upstream activities, particularly in the Permian Basin.

The synergy with Pioneer Natural Resources is exceeding expectations, leading to anticipated reduced capital expenditures and increased free cash flow.

ExxonMobil's refining business has been streamlined from 22 refineries in 2017 to an expected 15 by the end of 2024, and the quarterly dividend has seen a 4% increase to $0.99 per share.

Despite challenges such as the impact of the Joliet facility and declining crack spreads, ExxonMobil's leadership expressed confidence in their ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities, particularly in the low-carbon sector and new ventures like Proxxima and kinetic graphite.

Barclays predicts that ExxonMobil will maintain its capital expenditure range of approximately $26.5 billion to $31.5 billion through 2030, with an estimated capital expenditure of around $29.6 billion in 2025-2026. The firm also projects an increasing organic free cash flow wedge of $33.2 billion in 2025 and $38.4 billion in 2026. These are among the recent developments in ExxonMobil's strategic advancements and financial resilience.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement the analysis provided by TD Cowen, InvestingPro data offers additional insights into ExxonMobil's financial position and market performance. Despite the recent price target reduction, ExxonMobil maintains a strong market presence with a substantial market capitalization of $505.19 billion. The company's P/E ratio of 14.32 suggests that it may be reasonably valued compared to its earnings.

InvestingPro Tips highlight ExxonMobil's commitment to shareholder returns, noting that the company "has raised its dividend for 42 consecutive years" and "has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years." This track record of consistent dividend growth aligns with the company's current dividend yield of 3.44%, which may be attractive to income-focused investors.

Furthermore, ExxonMobil's financial health appears robust, with InvestingPro indicating that "cash flows can sufficiently cover interest payments" and the company "operates with a moderate level of debt." These factors support the company's ability to invest in new initiatives, such as the low carbon products mentioned in the article.

While the article discusses ExxonMobil's recent earnings beat, InvestingPro data shows a slight revenue decline of 1.43% over the last twelve months. However, the company remains profitable, with a gross profit of $108.97 billion and an operating income margin of 13.89% for the same period.

Investors considering ExxonMobil's potential may be interested to know that InvestingPro offers 10 additional tips for this stock, providing a more comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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