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CrowdStrike's FY25 outlook cut by BTIG; stock maintains neutral rating

Published 29/08/2024, 14:28
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On Thursday, NASDAQ:CRWD received a reiterated Neutral rating from BTIG, following the release of its second fiscal quarter results and updated guidance for fiscal year 2025.

The cybersecurity firm reported a year-over-year increase of 31.9% in annual recurring revenue (ARR), achieving $3.865 billion, which surpassed both the analyst's and the Street's expectations. Net ARR additions also exceeded predictions, coming in at $218 million compared to the Street's $199 million forecast.

Despite the positive performance in the second quarter, CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD)'s updated forecast for FY25 fell short of analysts' projections. The company's midpoint revenue prediction for FY25 is now set at approximately $3.896 billion, reflecting a 27.5% year-over-year growth, which is lower than the previous estimates of $3.978 billion and the Street's $3.955 billion.

This revised outlook has prompted BTIG to adjust its estimates for FY25 and FY26 to $3.902 billion and $4.792 billion, respectively, down from the earlier predictions of $3.978 billion and $4.962 billion.

During the earnings call, CrowdStrike acknowledged the challenges faced due to an outage and introduced new customer commitment packages aimed at providing discounts for multi-year contract renewals. While the Q2 results were better than many had feared, the guidance for the second half of FY25 was disappointing to some investors. The firm's analysts expressed uncertainty regarding the extent to which the updated outlook has accounted for potential risks.

The report concluded with a cautious outlook on CrowdStrike's growth potential, suggesting that even in a best-case scenario, the company's revenue growth could be between 23% to 24% by the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025. The analysts at BTIG find it difficult to foresee a recovery in growth rates above these levels going into FY26, leading them to maintain their Neutral stance on the stock.

In other recent news, the company's Falcon platform continues to receive positive feedback, with strong customer loyalty and retention. The firm's Falcon Flex (NASDAQ:FLEX) procurement vehicle has created $700 million in deal value in one year and is expected to be the primary go-to-market approach.

Despite recent IT outage concerns, Guggenheim maintained a neutral stance on CrowdStrike. The analyst noted that while the company effectively handled the incident, the fallout is expected to have prolonged repercussions over the coming year. However, the company has introduced a Customer Commitment Package to mitigate the impact.

InvestingPro Insights

As CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) navigates through a complex cybersecurity landscape, the company's financial health and market performance offer insights that can be vital for investors. According to InvestingPro data, CrowdStrike boasts a robust market capitalization of $65.67 billion, underscoring its significant presence in the industry. Despite trading at a high earnings multiple with a P/E ratio of 483.56, the company's revenue growth remains strong, with a 34.26% increase over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023. This growth is supported by a substantial gross profit margin of 75.29%, reflecting efficient operations and a strong market position.

InvestingPro Tips indicate that CrowdStrike holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet and is expected to see net income growth this year. These factors, along with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, provide a degree of financial stability. However, 15 analysts have revised their earnings expectations downwards for the upcoming period, signaling potential headwinds. For investors seeking a deeper analysis, there are over 15 additional InvestingPro Tips available, offering a comprehensive understanding of CrowdStrike's financial nuances and investment potential.

While the company's valuation multiples such as P/E and Price/Book are on the higher side, indicating a premium market valuation, the forward-looking metrics, including analyst predictions of profitability this year and a high return over the last year, paint a promising picture for long-term investors. As the cybersecurity firm continues to adapt to market demands and innovate its offerings, these InvestingPro insights can help investors make informed decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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