On Wednesday, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) maintained its positive stance on Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF), reiterating an Overweight rating and a price target of $194.00. The firm's confidence in the retailer is bolstered by a strong second-quarter performance, where earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.50, surpassing the Street's estimate of $2.22.
This result was fueled by a 21.2% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenues, which exceeded the company's mid-teens guidance, with double-digit comparable sales across both brands and all geographies.
Abercrombie & Fitch's gross profit margin (GPM) saw a significant expansion of 245 basis points year-over-year to 64.9%, outpacing the internal target of approximately 200 basis points of expansion. Additionally, the operating expense rate showed leverage of 371 basis points year-over-year, coming in at 49.4% which is lower than the Street's expectation of 50.9%.
These figures translated into operating margins of 15.5%, around 200 basis points higher than the company's planned 13-14%.
Breaking down performance by brand, Abercrombie & Fitch's same-store sales jumped 21%, amounting to a 44% two-year stack, which is an improvement over the first quarter's 43% stack.
Hollister reported a 15% increase in traffic-led same-store sales, exceeding the Street's prediction of 11% and marking a 1300 basis points acceleration on a two-year stack to 20%, compared to 7% in the first quarter.
Looking forward, Abercrombie & Fitch's management has raised its full-year 2024 outlook, now anticipating net sales growth of 12-13% year-over-year, which is an increase from the previous forecast of over 10%. Operating margins are also expected to rise to 14-15% from around 14% previously.
This optimistic outlook is driven by ongoing expectations for gross margin expansion due to lower cotton costs, higher average unit retail prices, counterbalanced by higher freight costs, and operating expense leverage. Additionally, a revised effective tax rate in the mid-20s, down from the previous mid-to-high 20s, supports an estimated FY24 EPS of approximately $10.00 at the midpoint.
Based on these strong results and positive projections, JPMorgan has raised its FY24 EPS estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch to $10.12, higher than the Street's consensus of $9.86, and its FY25 EPS estimate to $10.86, also above the Street's $10.20 forecast. The company has been added to the Analyst Focus List as a Growth idea, with the December 2025 price target remaining at $194, which reflects an 8x multiple of JPMorgan's FY26 estimated EBITDA, aligning with the average of their Non-Distressed Retail peers.
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