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Oil prices ease from seven-month high to below $49

Published 27/05/2016, 10:33
© Reuters. A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing
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By Keith Wallis and Dmitry Zhdannikov

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - Oil futures fell below $49 on Friday, easing from a seven-month high hit this week, with analysts predicting range-bound markets for the next few months as supply outages slowly help to clear a global glut of crude.

Prices also came under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar, buoyed by generally positive U.S. economic data amid growing expectations of a near-term increase in interest rates.

Brent (LCOc1) fell 69 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $48.90 a barrel by 0906 GMT, retreating further from the previous session's $50.51 peak, its highest since early November.

U.S. crude (CLc1) dropped 49 cents, or 1.02 percent, to $48.98 a barrel after touching $50.21 on Thursday, its highest since early October.

Oil pushed through $50 for the first time in around seven months on Thursday after supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires and militant attacks in Nigeria helped cut daily output by 4 million barrels.

"Oil markets are rebalancing faster than expected and should see no global stock build in 2017 for the first time in at least four years," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a note.

He said Brent at around $55 should strike a balance by stabilising output, securing sufficient but not too much investment and keeping demand growth healthy.

Oil fell to around $27 in January from as high as $115 in mid-2014, leading to a halt in U.S. oil output growth, which was one of the main causes of the global glut.

But with prices recovering to around $50, many shale producers will reactivate their investments, said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Tokyo's Mitsubishi Corp.

"Shale's total production costs are around $48-$50 a barrel - there will be producers who make money at $50," Nunan said.

Investors were also awaiting the appearance of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at an event later on Friday for further indications on when the Fed could raise interest rates.

The dollar held steady, up more than 2 percent so far against a basket of currencies in May. (DXY)

A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 2 may give further direction to oil markets.

© Reuters. A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing

"Most people feel the meeting will be neutral or bad," Nunan said, with a neutral outcome leading to no change in oil output, while moves by producers such as Saudi Arabia to boost production would be bad.

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