🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Oil slips away from 2014 highs, though overall 2018 outlook remains firm

Published 12/01/2018, 08:06
© Reuters. The Odebrecht Oil and Gas drillship is seen in the Guanabara bay in Rio de Janeiro
LCO
-
CL
-

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices on Friday slipped away from December-2014 highs reached the previous day.

Although analysts and traders have been warning of the risks of a downward price correction since the start of the year, they point out that overall market conditions remain strong, largely due to ongoing production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were at $63.41 (46.80 pounds) a barrel at 0650 GMT - 29 cents, or 0.6 percent, below their last settlement. WTI the day before hit its strongest since late 2014 at $64.77 a barrel.

Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were at $69.11 a barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Brent also marked a December-2014 high the previous day, at $70.05 a barrel.

Traders said relatively weak China December oil data had weighed on prices. China's crude oil imports in December eased to 33.7 million tonnes (7.97 million barrels per day), versus 37.04 million tonnes in November, customs data showed on Friday.

Meanwhile, its December oil products exports hit a record 6.17 million tonnes, as refiners churn out more fuel than even thirsty China can absorb.

This has contributed to a fall in Singapore refinery profit margins to below $6 per barrel this month, their lowest seasonal level in five years.

As a result, some refiners have already scaled back their output, reducing demand for feedstock crude.

An expected rise in U.S. oil production , currently at 9.5 million bpd, to above 10 million bpd soon has also weighed on prices, traders said.

Despite the lower prices on Friday, many analysts expect crude markets to remain firm this year, especially due to the OPEC-led production cuts.

"OPEC has acted successfully to reduce the inventory overhang and demand growth remains robust in the short term," said Sanjeev Bahl, analyst at Edison Investment Research in a 2018 outlook.

The production cuts started in January last year and are set to last through 2018.

"There is potential for oil prices to move higher as inventories normalise," Bahl said.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell almost 5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 5, to 419.5 million barrels.

That's slightly below the five-year average of just over 420 million barrels.

Fuel price hedging company Global Risk Management said in its 2018 outlook that "the likelihood of elevated oil prices this year seems imminent", largely due to the ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and Russia as well as political risk especially in Iran, Venezuela and Libya.

© Reuters. The Odebrecht Oil and Gas drillship is seen in the Guanabara bay in Rio de Janeiro

Taking into account price supportive and pressuring factors, a market survey of over 1,000 energy professionals conducted by Reuters in January showed crude oil price expectations clustered in a range of $60-$70 per barrel for 2018.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.