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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: November 9 - 13

Published 08/11/2015, 12:16
Updated 08/11/2015, 12:22
Gold posts biggest weekly drop since 2013 on Fed rate hike outlook
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Investing.com - Gold prices tumbled to the lowest level in three months on Friday, after data showing the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in October bolstered expectations for a rate hike next month.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange sank $16.50, or 1.49%, to close the week at $1,087.70 a troy ounce. It earlier fell to $1,084.50, the lowest since August 7.

Gold prices are down nearly 8% since October 28, the first of its current eight-session losing streak. The precious metal is nearing its six-and-a-half-year-low from July, when it fell below the $1,080-level.

For the week, prices of the precious metal plunged $50.30, or 4.72%, the biggest weekly drop since June 2013, as investors slashed holdings of the precious metal amid expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs last month, the largest increase since December and easily surpassing expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate inched down to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008.

The U.S. dollar rallied to seven-month highs against a basket of six other major currencies after the robust data paved the way for the Fed to raise interest rates at its December meeting.

The dollar index was up 1.23% to 99.29 in late trade, the strongest level since April 15. The index ended the week with gains of 2.31%.

Dollar-priced commodities become more expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback gains.

On Wednesday, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chair Janet Yellen sent strong hints that the central bank could raise short-term interest rates next month if upcoming economic data were supportive.

Market players have been trying to gauge when the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade after recent economic reports offered a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.

The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in the markets in recent months.

Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery tumbled 29.2 cents, or 1.95%, on Friday to settle at $14.69 a troy ounce by close of trade, a level not seen since October 2.

On the week, silver futures slumped 84.4 cents, or 5.63%, the largest weekly loss in nine months.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery dropped 1.3 cents, or 0.58%, on Friday to settle at $2.242 a pound. Prices fell to $2.235 earlier, the weakest level since August 24.

For the week, copper prices declined 5.0 cents, or 3.11%, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and persistent worries about future demand from top consumer China weighed.

The latest trade figures out of China added to concerns over the health of the world's second-biggest economy. Data released Sunday revealed that China's trade surplus widened to $61.6 billion last month from $60.3 billion in September, missing forecasts for a surplus of $64.8 billion.

Chinese exports slumped 6.9% from a year earlier, worse than forecasts for a decline of 3.0%, while imports plunged 18.8%, compared to expectations for a drop of 16.0%.

A slowdown in domestic demand indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragile and may need further government stimulus.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. data on retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Tuesday’s inflation figures from China will also be in focus, along with Friday’s preliminary data on economic growth in the euro area.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 9

The Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.

Tuesday, November 10

China is to produce data on inflation, with reports on both the consumer and producer price indices.

Wednesday, November 11

China is to publish data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Later in the day, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in London.

Thursday, November 12

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 13

The euro zone and Germany are to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment.

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