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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: July 13 - 17

Published 12/07/2015, 11:50
Updated 12/07/2015, 11:54
Gold futures fall for a third straight week
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Investing.com - Gold ended the week lower on Friday, amid indications U.S. interest rates will start rising later this year and as investors continued to monitor developments surrounding talks between Greece and its international creditors.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $1.30, or 0.11%, on Friday to end the week at $1,157.90 a troy ounce. For the week, prices of the precious metal slumped $7.30, or 0.48%, the third straight weekly loss.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,145.90, the low from July 8, and resistance at $1,174.40, the high from July 6.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery tacked on 12.0 cents, or 0.78%, on Friday to settle at $15.48 a troy ounce. Silver prices still lost 14.9 cents, or 0.52%, on the week, the third consecutive weekly decline.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech Friday that the central bank is on track to raise interest rates at some point this year. The comments from Yellen are her most definitive to date on the timing of a 2015 rate hike.

Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.

Meanwhile, hopes for a last-minute deal on Greece supported sentiment after Athens submitted new reform proposals late Thursday and formally requested a new three-year bailout package from its euro zone creditors.

The euro rallied sharply against the dollar on Friday, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was down 0.73% to 95.96 late Friday.

Greece's parliament voted in favor of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's bailout proposals in an early Saturday morning vote in Athens ahead of a meeting of the euro group of finance ministers later in the day.

Marathon talks between euro zone finance ministers ended without an agreement on Greece's latest reform proposal by late Saturday. All eyes are now on a summit of European leaders from all 28 European Union countries on Sunday, in what could be Greece's final opportunity to avoid a default.

Failure to reach an agreement this weekend would significantly increase the likelihood of Greece falling into bankruptcy and leaving the single currency union.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery shed 1.4 cents, or 0.55%, on Friday to settle at $2.551 a pound after hitting a six-year low of $2.381 earlier in the week.

Despite Friday's gains, copper prices tumbled 9.6 cents, or 3.53%, on the week, as investors monitored movements in Chinese stock markets.

Equity markets in China plunged sharply over the past three weeks, forcing policymakers to intervene and provide measures to boost liquidity and calm investors.

Market players are concerned that the plunge in the stock market could spread to other parts of the Chinese economy, triggering fears that the Asian nation's demand for the industrial metal will decline.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to continue to dominate sentiment after talks between euro zone finance ministers on a third bailout for Greece ended without an agreement on Saturday.

China is to release data on second quarter growth, while monetary policy statements by the European Central Bank and central banks in Japan and Canada will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 13

The eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks on Greece’s bailout in Brussels.

Tuesday, July 14

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices.

Wednesday, July 15

China is to release what will be closely watched figures on second quarter economic growth, as well as data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to publish figures on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, July 16

The ECB is also to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington.

At the same time, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, July 17

The U.S. is to release reports on consumer inflation, building permits, housing starts and consumer sentiment to round up the week.

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