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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: August 22 - 26

Published 21/08/2016, 10:59
© Reuters.  Gold dragged down by hawkish Fed remarks, but still post modest weekly gain
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Investing.com - Gold prices ended Friday's session deep in negative territory, as investors digested a fresh batch of comments from key Federal Reserve policymakers on the possibility of a near-term interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped $11.00, or 0.81%, to settle at $1,346.20 a troy ounce by close of trade.

Odds for a near-term rate hike came back in focus after San Francisco Fed President John Williams signaled support for a September rate increase in a Thursday afternoon speech.

"In the context of a strong domestic economy with good momentum, it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later," he said.

Williams's speech was just the latest piece of hawkish rhetoric from top Fed officials. Earlier this week, New York and Atlanta Fed presidents William Dudley and Dennis Lockhart both said a September rate hike may be on the table.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are pricing in a 12% chance of a rate hike by September. December odds were at around 46%.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, tacked on 0.4% on Friday to close the week at 94.48, as investors began to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this year.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Despite Friday's losses, the yellow metal still ended with a weekly gain of $3.90, or 0.34%, amid conflicting messages over the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting published earlier in the week showed committee members remained divided on the timing of the next rate hike, although there is general agreement that more data is needed before such a move.

A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

For the year, the precious metal is up nearly 25%, boosted by concerns over global growth and expectations of monetary stimulus.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery tumbled 42.3 cents, or 2.14%, on Friday to settle at a seven-week low of $19.31 a troy ounce. On the week, silver declined 43.2 cents, or 2.19%, the third straight weekly loss.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery dipped 0.5 cents, or 0.02%, on Friday to end at $2.167 a pound. For the week, New York-traded copper prices tacked on 2.5 cents, or 1.26%, the first weekly gain in a month.

In the week ahead, market players will turn their attention to a highly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the annual meeting of top central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

In addition, investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in the coming months, with Friday’s revised second quarter growth data in the spotlight.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 22

Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

Tuesday, August 23

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.

The euro zone is to release survey data looking at private sector activity.

The U.S. is to publish data on new home sales.

Wednesday, August 24

New Zealand is to report on the trade balance.

Australia is to release figures on completed construction work.

The U.S. is to produce a report on existing home sales as well as weekly data on oil supplies.

Thursday, August 25

The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims and durable goods orders.

The Jackson Hole annual meeting of top central bankers and economists due to take place in Wyoming from Thursday to Saturday kicks off.

Friday, August 26

Japan is to release data on inflation.

The U.K. is to release revised data on second quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is also to produce revised data on second quarter growth, as well as a second look at consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak in Jackson Hole. Speculation is rife that she will use the speech to start the race for a rate hike as soon as September following a recent barrage of hawkish Fed speakers.

The annual Fed symposium has sometimes been used by Fed chairs to make important policy pronouncements.

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