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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: August 1 - 5

Published 31/07/2016, 11:42
© Reuters.  Gold jumps to 3-week high after weak U.S. GDP; gains 3% for the month
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Investing.com - Gold prices rallied sharply on Friday, ending the session close to a three-week high after data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the second quarter, prompting market players to roll back expectations of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to a daily peak of $1,362.00 a troy ounce, the most since July 11, before settling at $1,357.50 by close of trade, up $16.30, or 1.22%.

The advance read on second quarter GDP showed a 1.2% annualized growth rate, well below expectations for 2.6%, the Commerce Department said on Friday. First quarter GDP was revised lower to 0.8% from 1.1%.

The disappointing data lessened the threat of an early interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures priced in just a 12% chance of a rate hike by September by late Friday. December odds were at 33%, down from 43% a day earlier and compared to 53% at the start of the week.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, plunged to a five-week low of 95.34 in wake of the disappointing GDP report.

It was at 95.53 by late Friday, down 1.2% for the day and 2.1% lower on the week, amid fading expectations of a Fed rate hike in the next couple of months.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said near-term risks to the U.S. economic outlook had diminished. However, the central bank stopped short of signaling that a further increase in U.S. interest rates is on the cards for later this year.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

For the week, gold rose $33.30, or 1.96%, snapping a two-week losing streak. On the month, gold ended July with a gain of 3%.

The yellow metal is up almost 26% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth and expectations of monetary stimulus.

Prices surged to a more than two-year high of $1,377.50 earlier in July, as concerns surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for September delivery tacked on 15.5 cents, or 0.77%, on Friday to settle at $20.34 a troy ounce. On the week, silver futures advanced 46.5 cents, or 1.57%, taking its gains for July to 9.7%.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for September delivery inched up 1.2 cents, or 0.57%, on Friday to end at $2.221 a pound. For the week, New York-traded copper prices eased down 2.0 cents, or 0.63%.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a hike in interest rates in the coming months, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data in the spotlight. There is also U.S. ISM data on both manufacturing and service sector activity.

Thursday’s rate announcement from the Bank of England will be in focus, amid mountings expectations the central bank will step up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.

Elsewhere, in China, market players will be looking out for data on the country's manufacturing sector, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 1

China is to publish its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index.

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Later in the day, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, August 2

The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its interest rate decision.

The U.K. is to release data on construction activity.

The U.S. is to report on personal income and spending.

Wednesday, August 3

China is to publish the Caixin service sector index.

The U.K. is to release data on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report, while the ISM will publish its non-manufacturing index.

Thursday, August 4

The Bank of England is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish the minutes of its policy meeting. The central bank will also produce its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney will address the financial press afterwards.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims as well as factory orders.

Friday, August 5

The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its monetary policy statement, which provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation.

Canada will release its monthly employment report as well as data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

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