Investing.com - The showdown between President Donald Trump and Iran will likely continue to be the main driver of sentiment in the oil market this week, after prices reached their loftiest levels in more than three years.
President Trump has until May 12 to decide whether to pull the United States out of a 2015 international accord to curb Iran’s nuclear program and restore sanctions on one of the world's biggest oil producers.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to abandon the deal, reiterating last week that unless European allies rectify the "terrible flaws" in the agreement, he will refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief for the oil-producing country.
If sanctions are reinstated, that could contribute to tighter global oil inventories, as it would likely result in a reduction of Tehran's oil exports.
Iran, which is a major Middle East oil producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), resumed its role as a major oil exporter in January 2016 when international sanctions against Tehran were lifted in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
President Hassan Rouhani said on Sunday Iran had plans to respond to any move by Trump and the U.S. would regret a decision to exit the accord.
Crude prices have been well-supported in recent weeks as traders increased their bets the U.S. would pull out the Iran nuclear deal, raising the potential for tighter global crude stockpiles.
New York-traded WTI crude futures settled at a three-and-a-half-year high on Friday.
The U.S. benchmark rallied $1.35, or about 2%, to end at $69.72 a barrel by close of trade, leaving it up 2.4% for the week. The contract rose to an intraday high of $69.97, its best level since Nov. 28, 2014.
Meanwhile, London-traded Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., jumped $1.25, or 1.7%, to settle at $74.87 a barrel.
It logged a fourth week of gains, up by 1.5%, bolstered by geopolitical tension in the Middle East and concerns about supply disruptions in key oil-producing nations, such as Venezuela.
Aside from geopolitics, oil traders will also continue to weigh a steady increase in U.S. production levels in the week ahead as the rise in U.S. drilling marked one of the few factors tamping back crude in an otherwise bullish environment.
U.S. drillers added nine oil rigs in the week to May 4, bringing the total count to 834, the highest number since March 2015, General Electric (NYSE:GE)'s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.
That was the fifth consecutive weekly increase in the rig count, underscoring worries about rising U.S. output.
Indeed, domestic oil production - driven by shale extraction - rose to an all-time high of 10.62 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Only Russia currently produces more, at around 11 million bpd.
Fresh weekly data on U.S. commercial crude inventories on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and how fast output levels will continue to rise will capture the market's attention.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the main events likely to affect the oil market.
Tuesday
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.
Wednesday
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.
Thursday
The U.S. government will publish a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.
Friday
Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.