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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: August 7 - 11

Published 06/08/2017, 10:52
Updated 06/08/2017, 20:05
© Reuters.  Oil rises on Friday, but logs slight weekly drop
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Investing.com - Oil prices settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but they still ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal to curb production.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract tacked on 55 cents, or around 1.1%, to end at $49.58 a barrel by close of trade Friday.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery rose 41 cents, or about 0.8%, to settle at $52.42 a barrel by close of trade.

Friday's gains came after weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 765 last week. It was the second decline in the past three weeks, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth.

Despite Friday's upbeat performance, WTI lost 13 cents, or about 0.3%, for the week, while Brent dipped 10 cents, or roughly 0.2%, amid indications that OPEC exports rose to their highest level of the year, despite the current pact to reduce output.

OPEC and some non-OPEC producers have agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for September climbed 1.4 cents, or about 0.9%, to end at $1.646 on Friday. It closed around 1.8% lower for the week.

September heating oil finished up 0.9 cents, or 0.6%, at $1.648 a gallon, ending roughly 0.6% higher for the week.

Natural gas futures for September delivery sank 2.6 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.774 per million British thermal units. It saw a weekly drop of nearly 5.7%, its third such loss in a row.

In the week ahead, market participants will focus on monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels.

The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.

Oil traders will also be focused on a meeting of oil ministers from some OPEC and non-OPEC countries set for Monday and Tuesday in Abu Dhabi to discuss compliance to agreed upon global production limits that run through March 2018.

Meanwhile, investors will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 7

Representatives of some OPEC and non-OPEC nations kick off a two-day meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss compliance with global output cuts.

Tuesday, August 8

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, August 9

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, August 10

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

The U.S. government is set to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, August 11

The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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