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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: October 17 - 21

Published 16/10/2016, 09:50
© Reuters.  Oil futures tally a fourth straight weekly rise
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Investing.com - Oil futures slipped on Friday, but still scored their fourth weekly gain in a row as market players awaited details of a planned output cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for December delivery slipped 8 cents, or 0.15%, on Friday to settle at $51.95 a barrel by close of trade. For the week, it scored a gain of 2 cents, or 0.04%, after posting advances in each of the last three weeks.

London-traded Brent prices rose to a one-year high of $53.73 on Monday after Russia said it was prepared to join an oil-output deal with major global oil producers to support the market.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria late last month.

However, market analysts remained skeptical of the deal, pondering how such a plan would be implemented.

The 14-member oil group said it won’t finalize details or complete its production agreement until the group’s next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Brent gave back some gains after OPEC's monthly report published Wednesday revealed that its oil production rose in September to the highest level in eight years. The producer cartel pumped 33.39 million barrels per day last month, up 220,000 barrels per day from August.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November slumped 9 cents, or 0.18%, to end the week at $50.35 a barrel.

Despite Friday's modest losses, New York-traded oil futures rose 54 cents, or 1.07%, on the week, their fourth weekly gain in a row. The U.S. benchmark touched a four-month peak of $51.60 on October 10.

Market players continued to focus on U.S. drilling prospects, amid indications of an ongoing recovery in drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 4 to 432, marking the 15th increase in 16 weeks.

Some analysts have warned that the recent rally in prices could be self-defeating, as it encourages U.S. shale producers to drill more, underlining concerns over a global supply glut.

Weekly government data showing sizable drawdowns in domestic gasoline and distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, provided support, although inventories of crude oil rose for the first time in six weeks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In the week ahead, oil traders will focus on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Market players will also continue to monitor supply disruptions across the world for further indications on the rebalancing of the market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, October 18

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, October 19

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Friday, October 21

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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