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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 23 - 27

Published 22/11/2015, 12:12
© Reuters.  Oil prices end mixed in volatile trading week
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Investing.com - Oil prices swung between gains and losses in choppy volatile trade on Friday, as investors reacted to the expiration of the December West Texas Intermediate oil contract.

Contract expiration often leads to volatile sessions as market participants look to close out positions or reposition their portfolios.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December dipped 15 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $40.39 a barrel. It earlier fell to $38.99, a level not seen since August 27.

The more actively-traded January contract inched up 18 cents, or 0.43%, to end Friday's session at $41.90, after a closely-watched gauge of U.S. drilling activity showed a decline.

Industry research group Baker Hughes (N:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. decreased by 10 last week to 564. A lower U.S. rig count is usually a bullish sign for oil as it signals potentially lower production in the future.

Gains were limited amid lingering concerns over a domestic supply glut. U.S. crude inventories rose for the eighth consecutive week last week, remaining near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost 53 cents, or 0.86%, the third straight weekly decline.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery tacked on 48 cents, or 1.09%, to close the week at $44.66 a barrel on Friday. It earlier rallied to a session high of $45.50 on pre-weekend short-covering.

On the week, London-traded Brent futures rose 19 cents, or 0.42%, as French air strikes in Syria underlined concerns over a disruption to global supplies from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $2.76 a barrel, compared to $2.46 by close of trade on Thursday.

The oil market has been on the defensive in recent months amid uncertainty about how quickly the global glut of crude is set to shrink.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.

OPEC will meet on December 4 to review their output strategy. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC members have recently indicated they will continue to stick to their policy of defending market share by keeping production high.

In the week ahead, market players will focus on a flurry of U.S. economic data due on Wednesday for further indications on the strength of the economy and the likelihood of a December rate hike.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday will be a half day.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 23

The euro zone is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales.

Tuesday, November 24

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release revised data on third quarter growth, as well as a report on the trade balance and data on consumer confidence. Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, November 25

The U.S. is to release a string of reports, including data on durable goods orders, personal spending, new homes sales, crude oil inventories and consumer sentiment, and a report on initial jobless claims, which is being released one day earlier than usual, because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Thursday, November 26

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Friday, November 27

The U.K. is to release revised data on third quarter economic growth.

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