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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 16 - 20

Published 15/05/2016, 10:50
© Reuters.  Oil pulls back from six month high, but notches a weekly gain of more than 3%
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Investing.com - Oil futures fell for the first time in three sessions on Friday, pulling back from six-month highs, as renewed concerns over a global supply glut prompted traders to book recent gains.

OPEC pumped 32.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the group said in a monthly report published Friday, up 188,000 bpd from March. This is the highest since at least 2008, as sanctions on Iran were lifted and an initiative with Russia and other non-members to tackle a supply glut by freezing output failed last month.

The group warned that a global supply glut may increase this year as surging output from its members makes up for losses from other countries whose production has been hit by low prices.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery shed 25 cents, or 0.52%, to end the week at $47.83 a barrel. Despite Friday’s modest decline, London-traded Brent futures rose $2.46, or 5.14%, on the week.

Brent was pushed higher amid reports of a militant attack on a Chevron-operated offshore oil facility in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta region as well as news of supply disruptions in Libya.

Brent futures prices are up by roughly 65% since briefly dropping below $30 a barrel in mid-February, despite the collapse of talks at a Doha summit in April aimed at achieving a production freeze among OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. OPEC meets on June 2 in Vienna and may discuss the freeze initiative again.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in June dipped 49 cents, or 1.05%, to settle at $46.21 a barrel. For the week, however, New York-traded oil futures tacked on $1.55, or 3.35%.

On Thursday, Nymex prices jumped to $47.02, the most since November 4, after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week for the first time since March.

Crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week to May 6, as imports fell an average 5,000 barrels per day, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts on average had expected an inventory increase of 0.7 million barrels.

Nymex oil prices are up nearly 60% since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11, as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by ten last week to 308, marking the eighth straight week of declines. At this time last year, drillers were operating 660 oil rigs.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at $1.62, compared to a gap of $1.38 by close of trade on Thursday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, May 17

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 18

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Friday, May 20

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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