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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: July 13 - 17

Published 12/07/2015, 13:38
Updated 12/07/2015, 13:42
© Reuters.  Nymex oil suffers over 7% weekly loss on Greece, Iran, China jitters
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Investing.com - Crude oil futures ended Friday's session little changed as the continuation of Greek and Iranian negotiations, as well as concerns in China remained in focus.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for September delivery tacked on 12 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $59.00 a barrel after hitting a three-month low of $55.09 on July 7. For the week, London-traded Brent futures lost $1.27, or 2.64%, the second straight weekly decline.

Market sentiment was supported amid renewed optimism that Greece would reach a deal on a new bailout with its creditors, allowing the country to remain on in the euro zone.

Hopes for a breakthrough were boosted after Greece put forward new proposals on budget cuts and economic reforms ahead of a meeting of the euro group of finance ministers on Saturday.

Failure to reach an agreement this weekend would significantly increase the likelihood of Greece falling into bankruptcy and leaving the single currency union.

Oil traders were also eyeing nuclear talks between the West and Iran, which could push millions of barrels of crude into the oversupplied world market.

Tehran wants to double oil exports to more than two million barrels a day if a deal is reached and sanctions are lifted according to a top Iranian official.

Meanwhile, investors monitored volatile movements in Chinese stock markets. Equity markets in China plunged sharply over the past three weeks, forcing policymakers to intervene this week and provide measures to boost liquidity and calm investors.

Market players are concerned that the plunge in the stock market could spread to other parts of the Chinese economy, triggering fears that the Asian nation's demand for oil will decline.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August shed 4 cents, or 0.08%, to end the week at $52.74 a barrel. Nymex prices hit a three-month low of $50.58 on July 7.

On the week, New York-traded oil futures plunged $3.68, or 7.36%, the fourth consecutive weekly loss, as worries over high domestic U.S. oil production weighed.

Industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by five last week to 645, marking the second straight week of gains after 29 weeks of declines.

The International Energy Agency on Friday forecast weaker global oil demand next year and warned that prices are set to come under further pressure from an expanding glut of crude.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.

Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $6.26 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to continue to dominate sentiment after talks between euro zone finance ministers on a third bailout for Greece ended without an agreement on Saturday.

China is to release data on second quarter growth, while monetary policy statements by the European Central Bank and central banks in Japan and Canada will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 13

The eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks on Greece’s bailout in Brussels.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

Tuesday, July 14

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, while the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, July 15

China is to release what will be closely watched figures on second quarter economic growth, as well as data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to publish figures on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region. The country will also publish its weekly government report on oil inventories.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, July 16

The ECB is also to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington.

At the same time, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, July 17

The U.S. is to release reports on consumer inflation, building permits, housing starts and consumer sentiment to round up the week.

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