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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: August 29 - September 2

Published 28/08/2016, 10:40
© Reuters.  Oil futures suffer first weekly loss in a month
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Investing.com - Oil futures managed to hold on to modest gains on Friday, but suffered a decline for the week after the Saudi energy minister shrugged off the need for OPEC to intervene to stabilize markets.

Reuters reported late Thursday that Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told the news agency in an interview that he does not believe any "significant intervention" in the oil market is necessary.

His reported comments come ahead of an informal meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algeria late next month, during which major oil producers are expected to discuss a potential output freeze.

Traders also assessed the likelihood of an interest-rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting September, following comments from the top two officials at the central bank.

An increase in U.S. interest rates tends to lift the dollar, which would make oil more expensive for traders who conduct business in other currencies.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery tacked on 25 cents, or 0.5%, on Friday to settle at $49.92 a barrel by close of trade.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures retreated 96 cents, or 1.88%, the first weekly loss in a month.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October ended Friday's session at $47.64 a barrel, up 31 cents, or 0.65%, on the day.

Despite Friday's gains, New York-traded oil futures dipped 88 cents, or 1.81%, for the week, snapping a three-week win streak.

Crude prices soared almost $10 a barrel, or nearly 25%, in the first three weeks of August, as the prospect of an output freeze by major producers at an informal OPEC meeting in Algeria next month sparked a massive rally.

However, futures gave back some gains this week, as analysts and traders remain skeptical the meeting would result in a coherent effort to reduce the global glut.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

Meanwhile, market players continued to focus on U.S. drilling prospects, amid indications of a recent recovery in drilling activity. According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week was unchanged at 406. That followed eight straight weeks of increases.

Some analysts have warned that the current rally in prices could be self-defeating, as it encourages U.S. shale producers to drill more, underlining concerns over a global supply glut.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Market players will also continue to monitor supply disruptions across the world for further indications on the rebalancing of the market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, August 30

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, August 31

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Friday, September 2

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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