On Monday (NASDAQ:MNDY), BofA Securities made an adjustment to the price target of Omnicell (NASDAQ:OMCL), a leading provider in pharmacy automation. The firm has reduced the target to $54.00, down from the previous $57.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock.
The adjustment follows the release of a quarterly capital expenditures survey by the Facilities and Managed Care Team, which also included relevant data for Omnicell. The survey provided insights into the expected growth of pharmacy IT budgets for the year 2025, projecting a stable increase of 4% year-over-year, a slight decrease from the 4.6% year-over-year growth anticipated for 2024.
The broader capital expenditure trends are looking positive, with easier access to financing, fewer delays and cancellations, and the resolution of disruptions related to Change Healthcare (NASDAQ:CHNG). These factors are seen as supportive of growth in the market. Moreover, new product extensions like XT Amplify are anticipated to aid in customer conversions.
Despite the positive market trends and Omnicell's strong position in a market largely dominated by two key players, there are concerns about the visibility of the company's product revenue growth in the coming years. The firm acknowledges Omnicell's leadership in the pharmacy automation sector but points out that the uncertainty around the growth trajectory of product revenue presents a challenge.
In conclusion, BofA Securities has reiterated its Neutral rating on Omnicell, setting the price objective at $54, which is based on approximately 17 times the calendar year 2025 enterprise value to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), a slight reduction from the previous 18 times.
This valuation is closer to the 10-year historical average of 15 times. The premium multiple over the historical average reflects Omnicell's transition towards an annual recurring revenue model.
In other recent news, Omnicell's recent Q3 results were mixed, with total revenue standing at $282 million, a sequential increase from the previous quarter but a decline compared to the same period last year. However, the company raised its full-year profitability guidance and welcomed Nnamdi Njoku as the new Chief Operating Officer, focused on operational excellence and a service-based model.
GAAP earnings per share increased to $0.19, up from $0.08 in the previous quarter, while non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.56, down from $0.62 year-over-year. The company's service revenues saw a surge, driven by strong demand for Advanced Services, though product revenues were slightly up from the previous quarter but significantly down from the previous year.
Looking ahead, Omnicell's full-year 2024 guidance anticipates bookings between $800 million and $875 million, with total revenues expected to be between $1.1 billion and $1.110 billion. Non-GAAP EBITDA is projected to be between $129 million and $134 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share estimated to be $1.65 to $1.72.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement BofA Securities' analysis, recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context on Omnicell's financial position and market performance. Despite the challenges highlighted in the article, InvestingPro Tips indicate that net income is expected to grow this year, and analysts predict the company will return to profitability. This aligns with the positive market trends mentioned in the article, including easier access to financing and fewer project delays.
The company's strong recent performance is evident in InvestingPro data, which shows a 66.47% price total return over the past six months and a 63% return over the last year. This robust stock performance suggests that investors may be optimistic about Omnicell's future prospects, including the potential of new product extensions like XT Amplify mentioned in the article.
However, it's worth noting that Omnicell is currently trading at a high EBITDA valuation multiple, according to InvestingPro Tips. This could be reflective of the premium multiple discussed in the article, which accounts for Omnicell's transition towards an annual recurring revenue model.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Omnicell, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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