On Tuesday, Barclays (LON:BARC) reiterated its Equalweight rating on Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) shares, maintaining a price target of $315.00. The firm reviewed supplemental phase 1 data for Amgen's MariTide (AMG133) and identified concerns that could influence the stock's performance. The data highlighted bone mineral density (BMD) loss at higher doses and notable heart rate increases during treatment.
The analyst pointed out that while the sample sizes in the study are small, making it premature to draw broad implications, the findings raise questions ahead of the near-term MariTide top-line press release. These concerns add to existing questions about nausea side effects that were not fully addressed following the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) meeting.
The BMD loss observed feeds into previous theoretical concerns regarding GIPR antagonism, which Amgen has stated is not evident in their genetic analysis of GIPR mutations. The analyst suggests that for Amgen's stock to appreciate, the forthcoming update would need to address several points, including nausea, discontinuation rates, heart rate changes, and BMD loss.
The report also notes that a significant portion of Amgen's net present value, approximately $90 per share, is attributed to MariTide. The analyst expects that without addressing these safety and discontinuation concerns, there is an increasingly narrow path for AMGN shares to move higher. Furthermore, there is anticipation of a negative bias post-top-line leading into a more detailed medical presentation expected sometime in 2025.
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