A very interesting month since last I wrote, full of failed Key Reversals – both Up & Down & ending within 450 tics at last time of writing – not a lot for this pair!
So after a month where has this left us?
Well, the 17th as I suggested last time may be an important day turned out to be a little important, actually the 17th & 18th were the most important for Jun as they were the days when the recent 50% Fib at 3.0742 was tested, then broken but immediately underneath there was the Medium MA (currently 3.0688) which halted the decline, caused NO closes under the 50% Fib & started the rally that lasted the rest of the month.
So, what do we have now?
Well, the 50% Fib is intimately tied in currently with the new Apr-to-date Uptrend. We are above the Mar – Apr 50% Fib at 3.0988 and whilst looking at the Monthly Chart for USD/JPY we have (just) a Bearish Harami Pattern we also have a nice Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the Weekly Chart which seems to trump the former. Whilst looking at these longer term Charts it presented to my eyes a possible Pattern which I have asked the question of on the Daily Chart above.
Is the whole Mar-to-date action a potential Ascending Triangle? I think it might be but it is too early. Something else which is occurring but is imminent rather than too early is the Golden Cross of the Short/Medium MA over the Medium MA, another bullish sign. All together support is currently at 3.1183, 3.0988,, 30865, key between 3.0771 & 3.0688, then another key area 3.0472, 3.0235 & 3.0080. Resistance is currently at 3.1503, 3.1584, 3.1712, 3.1889, 3.2136, 3.2327, 3.2875 & of course 3.3137.
I am minded to remove the question mark above & push this pair into full bullish; probably something I may regret next time!
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