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Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week Of 8 June 2020

Published 05/06/2020, 09:32
Updated 05/03/2021, 15:50
  • Worldwide PMI updates for manufacturing and services in May
  • US monthly jobs report
  • Monetary policy meetings in Eurozone, Canada and Australia
  • A key event of the week ahead will be the latest FOMC meeting with updated US economic projections, while Europe sees important GDP and industrial production releases to give guidance on the depths of second quarter economic downturns in the UK and Eurozone respectively. In Asia, markets will be looking for clues as to the extent to which the Chinese economy might be reviving and also eagerly await trade and industrial production numbers across Asia Pacific.

    The US FOMC meeting comes on the heels of the ECB unleashing an additional €600bn boost to its lending programme. With the COVID-19 pandemic having already taken a huge toll on the US jobs market and set to cause a record collapse in GDP in the second quarter, markets will be looking closely for any change in the Fed's stance alongside its updated economic projections, which will set out the expected depth of recession and speed of recovery. At its prior meeting, the FOMC held interest rates at near zero, but the minutes revealed that policymakers are prepared to adjust their stance, including elements of its various emergency lending programs, in response to evolving financial conditions. Inflation data for the US are also released, together with consumer sentiment numbers for June.

    In Europe, markets will be eyeing GDP data in the UK and industrial production numbers in the Eurozone for further clues as to the depth of the economic downturns in the second quarter, which PMI surveys indicate will be the largest on record, albeit with signs of the rate of contraction cooling in May. We'll also be eagerly awaiting developments from the Eurogroup as to the coordination of stimulus to fight the COVID-19 fuelled downturn across the region.

    In Asia, credit and money supply will be a key release for China as insights are sought as to the pace of recovery as China's economy continues to open up, having relaxed virus-related restrictions earlier than other countries. Trade data for Taiwan will also provide an interesting bellwether for wider Asia trade trends in the wake of the pandemic.

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