With most indices closed, the FTSE 100 spent the day doing little until 16:29 just before the bell when it popped up to the sell level we had at 6811, but not really very bearish - only dropping to 6790. After the US bell, LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE:LNKD) reported better results which saw the FTSE pop up a bit again and has held well overnight. Not many bears around at the moment! Today sees the NFP jobs news from the US, and if Wednesday's ADP is anything to go on might see a better result than forecast (NFP forecast is 215k versus 192k previously).
The BoE make me laugh though, one day you have one member (Cunliffe) saying we need to be cautious as its dangerous to ignore house price boom, straight after another member (Dale) saying there is no bubble, nothing to worry about! Personally I'm with Cunliffe on this one as its a repeat of 2007 waiting in the wings. Ah but its different this time they all cry! As they always do, just before the bubble pops.
FTSE Outlook
Despite a very dull day yesterday when not a lot happened the short order fired in the end but not for very many points. The key level of resistance is now the 6820 seen after 9pm last night a break of which should get 6830 and the top of the Bianca channels yet again, both around the 6845.6850 area therefore a short here should be alright. Support on the 10 day channel is 6771 but the way they market has been the past few days there never seems to be a dip to support to go long on! If that 6770 level were to break though then a trip down to 6650 and 6600 is possible.
Todays pivot is 6798 so pre NFP (which is liable to mean today could do anything) so i expect a climb this morning again leading up to the news, then it to get spiky at 13:30. News could be anything but might be a catalyst for a drop, possibly! Looking at the Raff channels and the uptrend that is in tact then 6900 is possible. I'm still watching 1919 on the S&P to be hit soon. It will turn once its burnt a few more bears and got as many people as possible bullish, as it is always want to do.
As its Friday I'm only going for 2 possible trades, off the bigger picture resistances as its likely to just chop around I think pre NFP. I think we will get initial resistance at 6830, then a dip (maybe only to the pivot though) then a rise again. Either way its going to be tricky today, though risky long off the pivot might also work as well as a short at 6630 though I haven't put them int he trade plan below. Tight stops though!
Daily Raff Channels
Bianca Trends
Gold
Still not very bullish on Gold. The 30 minute chart though shows support at 1278 and resistance at 1292 for today or certainly around those areas as the price is within that triangle you can see with the red and green lines. If it breaks above that then 1297 is on the cards, whilst a break below the support would lead to 1272.
S&P
Failed to break the 1885 resistance yesterday, despite the FTSE pushing on. Therefore thats still resistance then 1889 above that, then 1893 and 1903, 1919 as further resistance levels. Its likely to get spiky at 13:30 (as will gold), but support is 1872 today and 1868 below that, which is the 25ema on daily. Despite not breaking 1885 it hasn't really dropped much and the pivot is at 1883.4 for today, so I think the bulls will certainly try and push on before the news - buy the rumour based on the ADP results from Wednesday.
DAX
Todays pivot is 9594 so that could be initial support. Dax was closed yesterday so not a lot happened on it, hovering around 9622 most of the day. Upside potentials are 9640 and 9734. If the pivot were to break then supports are 9530, 9490, 9450. If 9730 is seen I might well try a small short there depending on what things look like at the time.