Last month I placed the bullet point above into neutral because:
Last Thursday's KR Down on the Daily Chart above followed by its failure last Friday tempted me to think of moving it to mildly bullish but as I've said before, I'm cautious about KRs in any JPY pairing. Additionally, we are sill too close to the MAs for my comfort for a trend other than neutral...
Guess what? From then until now we're 153 tics lower after experiencing a bull run followed by a large bear move (including one KR Down). We're sill too close to the MAs despite the wide range, though I note the recent high to low is less than the previous low to high...a sign of changing...perhaps indecisive times.
So we're on a rollercoaster...how'd we deal with it? Well, the 'almost' KR Up on Friday may mean a test soon of the two key 50% Fibs nearby, both resistance. The 111.30 of the major move and the 111.65 of the minor...or you can look at them as one glob of 50% Fib-ishness (no such word!). In the middle we've the Medium MA (currently 111.36) gradually declining as are three out of four MAs and with the Short MA passing down through the Short/Medium MA as a Bearish Dead Cross. Then there is the band of resistance ahead of the Long MA, between 111.96 - 112.14...did I also not mention the Long MA (currently 112.36) as resistance?
Overall we have a lot of stuff topside whilst below we've the 50% Fib of the big June 2016 - December 2016 move at 108.86 which is coincident with the recent June low and then the 2017 low at 108.11 as well. With these significant supports and resistances...the market seemingly appropriate to have the bullet point above in neutral despite more MAs poining down.
Support is currently at 110.55, 109.89, 109.46, 109.09, 108.86 and 108.11. Resistance is currently at 110.98, 111.17, 111.30 - 110.36 (dynamic), 111.65, 111.96 - 112.14, 112.32 and 112.44 (dynamic).
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