So this seems to be the scenario for USD/ZAR … we have a possible Double Top (unlabelled on the Daily Chart… for a reason) with the Weekly Chart in the first week of Jan showing a Key Reversal Down as well as KRs Down on the Daily Chart on the 9th & 14th of Jan as well as an Indecisive Spinning Top on the Monthly Chart! So why not change the bullet point above from its original bullish but with a question mark shown on the last regular monthly review?
It is simple really – the market is exhibiting bearish signs as it approaches the key 2008 high at 11.8580 after a long, long bullish run up – it has done this approaching 11.8580 before! It is deciding whether to risk going higher or whether to relapse! Given Friday’s strong bullish close I am therefore not minded to deflect the bullish cause just because the market suffers some legitimate nerves approaching such a key resistance! Caution – wait & see if this long dated rally falls over and looks properly bearish.
At least consecutive closes under the Medium MA (Currently 11.2886) would be needed to go into neutral & consecutive closes below the Long MA (currently 10.9512) to make it look bearish! In this regard the close last Friday over all three nearby Fibs acting as support (11.6414, 11.5871 & 11.5328) was important. Further support is at 11.5102, 11.4366, 11.3570 & key at 11.3193. Apart from the key 11.8580 resistance we have others currently at 11.6821, 11.7642, important at 11.8163 – 11.8172 & 11.9101.
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