I was concerned last time about the strength of the recent 50% Fib of the huge move up in May at 3.2474 and also of the long MA (currently 3.2170). I voiced it such:
Looking forward, I am concerned by the somewhat lack of ambition of the market to move away from the current 50% Fib at 3.2474, it is seemingly key at the moment.
I needn't have been too concerned as the Monday after my report prices shot up and we saw a subsequent rally through most of June.
Last week was one of the exceptions as prices closed again consecutively at the end of quarter and semi-annually below the 50% Fib (3.3113) of the very recent post-May move up. Though we are higher post the pullback from the May move, we are still not seemingly taking advantage of the same big move by trying yet higher still. For example, we only just touched for three days and retreated the 'X' (approximately 3.3425 area) of my famous USDBRL potential upside target. Prices need to move over the very recent 50% Fib at 3.3113 very soon, say in next two weeks or any impetus for a try higher will be lost and we may then look lower at the combo of highs, MAs and Fibs between 3.2093 - 3.2233 as an alternative. Additionally, we could always stay neutral and regard the recent action as the follow on to an excess of exuberance.
Support is currently 3.2883 - 3.2855, 3.3728, 3.2670, 3.2474 and a whole band of support between 3.2233 - 3.2093 followed by a smaller band based on 3.1795.
Resistance is currently at 3.3113, 3.3282, 3.3343, 3.3425 - 3.3485, 3.3860 (dynamic) and 3.4034 - 3.4087.
What about the bullet point? Well, I had the market in neutral last time and that wasn't perfect...mildly bullish would have been better and would fit in with current MAs all moving higher in varying degrees. I'm still not totally convinced of the case for the upside but suggest mildly bullish is better than the alternatives at the moment.
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